There is so much to dive into this afternoon in the MLB player props market.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 30, including why Max Scherzer is going to shove against Seattle.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Zebby Matthews |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -115 |
 Max Scherzer |
Under 2.5 earned runs | -149 |
 Parker Messick |
Under 5.5 strikeouts | +126 |
Zebby Matthews Over 2.5 earned runs (-115)
Still have no idea what a "Zebby" is, but we're fading it once again.
Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews enters Sunday with the worst pitcher rating on the day, drawing a fully elite-rated Chicago White Sox lineup, per Batters-Box. Matthews has improved over his last few starts, but he is still allowing over 54% hard contact over his last five outings.
The White Sox bats have been on fire all week and have yet to cool down, as they have a 124 wRC+, .350 wOBA, and .785 OPS over their last six games. All six of their elite-rated hitters today will bat from the left side, and Matthews has struggled against lefties all season, owning a 5.57 ERA and 4.50 xERA while allowing a 12.2% barrel rate and 1.69 HR/9.
With the White Sox not looking ahead to a day off, they should be fully focused on this afternoon's matchup. Take this down to -125.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, CHSN
Max Scherzer Under 2.5 earned runs (-149)
The old man has a chance to shove this evening against the Seattle Mariners, as they have been ice cold at the dish as of late and most of the season.
Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Max Scherzer really only has to worry about a few left-handed bats that have been seeing the ball pretty well in their last 30 at-bats versus right-handed pitching. However, six of their nine batters are batting below .185 during that stretch, generating little to no hard contact or barrels.
Despite Father Time calling Scherzer's name, he has done a very good job limiting hard-hit and barreled balls in his last five starts. On top of that, he owns a 3.31 xERA during that span.
If the old-timer gets lit up by a lineup that owns an 81 wRC+, .620 OPS, and 27.4% strikeout rate over their last six games, tip your cap. The Blue Jays are trying to end the season strong with a possible playoff berth, and Mad Max should be locked in this afternoon.
Take this down to -150.
- Time: 1:37 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportnet, SEAM
Parker Messick Under 5.5 strikeouts (+126)
Cleveland Guardians left-hander Parker Messick has been outstanding in his rookie season, being an absolute strikeout machine. However, it seems like a tough road for him to surpass 5.5 strikeouts this afternoon, as he draws a Kansas City Royals lineup that makes a lot of contact and does not strike out much.
Not to mention, they are on a heater at the dish over their last 12 games. During that stretch, they own a 17.4% strikeout rate, 145 wRC+ and an .863 OPS.
Even against southpaws, the Royals do not strike out at a high rate. Over their last 30 at-bats versus a left-handed pitcher, more bats have a walk rate above 10% than they have hitters with strikeout rates above 21%.
If you want to play it safe and get 6.5, but pay some juice, go for it, but Messick should stay under six strikeouts with how well the Royals have been. Take this down to +110.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, CLEG
- Prop picks: 440-876, -16.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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