Toledo vs Bowling Green Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Rocketing Up the Ranks

The Bowling Green Falcons will try to extend their four-game winning streak as they host the MAC West-leading Toledo Rockets tonight. 

Bowling Green has rescued its season, as wins over four conference foes have pulled the Falcons to within one game of the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks in the MAC East. Toledo remains undefeated in conference play, and college football odds make the Rockets a heavy favorite in tonight's showdown. 

A prolific Toledo offense has paired up with a stout defense to put the Rockets head and shoulders above their MAC competition. We’ll discuss whether they can continue to dominate the conference in our free college football picks for Toledo vs. Bowling Green on November 14.

Toledo vs Bowling Green best odds

Toledo vs Bowling Green picks and predictions

The Toledo Rockets have slipped under the national radar in a year in which the Liberty Flames and the James Madison Dukes have stolen the show in terms of mid-major success. They haven’t lost since their opener, when they dropped a 30-28 nailbiter to the Illinois Fighting Illini on the road. Since that time, they’ve ripped off nine wins and are now knocking on the door of the AP Top 25.

If anything, Toledo is getting stronger as the season progresses. The Rockets dropped five straight games against the spread before beating Miami (Ohio) on the road by four points. Since then, they’ve covered in blowout victories over the Buffalo Bulls and the Eastern Michigan Eagles.

The Rockets have outclassed MAC competition on both sides of the ball. The offense has been particularly potent on the ground, with Peny Boone running for 7.1 yards per carry and 12 touchdowns this season. On defense, Toledo is holding opponents to just 19.7 points per game, with opposing quarterbacks completing just 51% of their passes against the Rockets secondary. 

There are a couple of tough tests waiting out there in the MAC schedule for Toledo, but the Bowling Green Falcons aren’t one of them. The Falcons may be proud of their current four-game winning streak but it has come against some of the weakest teams in the conference. Those four opponents have a combined nine wins on the year and a 6-18 conference record — not exactly schools in the same class as Toledo.

The Bowling Green defense has been strong against the pass, but strictly mediocre against the running game. The Falcons are allowing 3.9 yards per rush, and that’s without facing anyone as talented and prolific as Boone. 

Had this game taken place early in the season, I might have been interested in taking Bowling Green getting 10 points at many sportsbooks. However, Toledo looks too polished and too capable of controlling the game against lesser competition for me to believe the Falcons can keep this game close even on their home field. 

I’ll be looking to get under that 10-point mark, as that’s a key number, but I’m predicting an easy victory for the Rockets. Let’s lay the points with Toledo as it marches into the MAC championship game on a high note.

My best bet: Toledo -9.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Toledo vs Bowling Green same-game parlay

Toledo -10

Over 51.5

Peny Boone anytime touchdown

No-sweat SGP available

+305 at DraftKings

I’ll start my same-game parlay for tonight's matchup by once again taking Toledo on the spread. The odds are -10 at most sites, and I’m okay with giving up the half-point in order to combine that bet with my other legs.

There should be some scoring in this game, as both Toledo and Bowling Green have been rolling offensively in recent weeks. Toledo is coming off a 49-point outburst against the Eastern Michigan Eagles, while the Falcons are averaging 34.5 points per game during their four-game winning streak. I’m backing the Over here.

Finally, let’s pick Boone to reach the end zone. Boone has scored at least once in four of his last five games, including three touchdowns last week. He’s once again facing a mediocre defense against the run and should be a big part of Toledo's game plan.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Toledo vs Bowling Green spread and Over/Under analysis

Toledo opened this game as a 10-point favorite over Bowling Green. While some books have moved that line down to 9.5, the consensus spread remains a flat 10 points, with -110 odds offered on both sides.

While Toledo has been great overall this season, it hasn't dominated against the spread, putting up just a 5-5 ATS mark on the year. Meanwhile, Bowling Green is 6-4 ATS so far in 2023. 

My best play for this game is taking Toledo and laying the points. The Rockets are playing better every week, while Bowling Green has only looked better over the past month because of the weak competition it's faced. Toledo’s running game should allow it to control this one from start to finish and cover the spread comfortably.

The total on tonight’s game opened at a flat 52 points. That number has come down to 51.5 points at most sites, with some books going as low as a flat 51. You can still find -110 on the Under at 51.5, or get those same odds on the Over at 51 points.

Both teams have played to the Over this season, though not to an extreme degree. The Over has posted a 6-4 record when Toledo plays, and the same mark in Bowling Green games. 

Toledo has one of the best offensive units in the MAC, and it should match up well against the Falcons. Meanwhile, Bowling Green has scored at least 24 points in five of its last six games and has been more consistent on offense at home than against stiffer competition on the road. The total isn’t too far off of where it should be for this game, but I’m leaning towards the Over.

Toledo vs Bowling Green betting trend to know

Toledo is 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Toledo vs Bowling Green.

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