Texas vs Iowa State Picks and Predictions: Longhorns Provide Bounceback Spot For Cyclones

The Longhorns have spent the last month squandering double-digit leads and now come into this Big 12 matchup as a 7.5-point underdog against Breece Hall and the Cyclones. Find out how it plays out in our Texas vs. Iowa State picks.

Last Updated: Nov 3, 2021 10:50 AM ET Read Time: 5 min
Breece Hall Iowa State Cyclones college football
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The Texas Longhorns will be hoping to snap a three-game losing streak when they take on the Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday. The betting odds currently have Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns as 6.5-point underdogs in this one. 

Will Texas cover against an Iowa State team that has won four of its last six? Keeping reading our Texas vs. Iowa State picks and predictions to find out. 

Texas vs Iowa State odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Longhorns were originally 6-point underdogs in this game, but there are now more books that have them getting either 6.5 or 7 points. That’s all despite the fact that a pretty hefty majority of bettors are rolling with Texas. The total, which opened at 60, is now either 60.5 or 61 nearly everywhere. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Texas vs Iowa State picks

Picks made on 11/03/2021 at 12:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Texas vs Iowa State game info

Location: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
Date: Saturday, November 6, 2021
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Texas vs Iowa State betting preview


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Texas: Kitan Crawford DB (Questionable), Jordan Whittington RB (Out), Jacoby Jones DL (Out), Denzel Okafor OL (Out), Troy Omeire WR (Out), Ishmael Ibraheem DB (Out), Brayden Liebrock TE (Out), Jaden Alexis WR (Out).
Iowa State: Jaquan Amos DE (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Iowa State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games following at ATS loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas vs. Iowa State.

Texas vs Iowa State predictions

Iowa State was favored by a touchdown against the West Virginia Mountaineers last week, but Matt Campbell’s team was unable to earn the victory. It was a tough blow for a Cyclones team that had been playing very well, as it could have really given the group a good chance to be in a good bowl game at the end of the year. Still, the Cyclones have a lot to play for and now host a Longhorns team that just can’t get things right at the moment. Texas comes into this one having lost three in a row — both straight-up and against the spread. 

The Cyclones are coming into this game on a two-game winning streak against the Longhorns. Iowa State is also coming off a game in which it held the West Virginia to just 122 yards on 29 carries. The week before, the Cyclones held the Oklahoma State Cowboys to 107 yards on 32 carries. That type of rushing defense is especially important when considering that Texas running back Bijan Robinson is one of the best players in all of college football. However, it’s also important because Iowa State is 10-2 ATS since the start of the 2019 season when coming off back-to-back games in which the team gave up 125 or fewer rushing yards. 

Offensively, it’s not hard to envision a scenario in which the Cyclones have no trouble moving the football. Texas nearly gave up 200 yards on the ground against the Baylor Bears last week, and the Longhorns have already had three games in which they’ve given up 220 or more rushing yards this season. With that in mind, Iowa State should feed Breece Hall early and often. Hall rushed for 167 yards and a touchdown last week, and he has now rushed for at least 100 yards in five of his last six games. His presence is one of the main reasons that Iowa State is a favorite in this one, and Brock Purdy should do enough in the passing game to get the Cyclones across the finish line. 

Iowa State isn’t exactly known as an explosive offensive team, but the Over has hit in four of the group’s last five games. The Cyclones averaged 35.2 points per game in those five contests, and they’ll now look to run up another big number against a Longhorns defense that is an absolute disaster right now. Texas has allowed at least 30 points in four of its past five games, and the one game that didn’t fall into that was a game against a mediocre TCU Horned Frogs team. 

Since Campbell became coach of the Cyclones, the Over is 8-4 when Iowa State is coming off a game in which the team lost on the road against a Big 12 opponent. It’s also 10-4 when the Cyclones are coming off a road loss, in general. This team will be jacked up to be playing in front of its own fans, and the offense will feed off that energy. 

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