The TCU Horned Frogs parted ways with head coach Gary Patterson this week, and the team now hosts a very good Baylor Bears team on Saturday. Patterson put together a legendary career at the program, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Horned Frogs are able to respond.
The betting odds currently have TCU as an underdog of nearly a touchdown. Will that be enough points against a 7-1 Baylor team that is tied for second in the Big 12? Find out in our Baylor vs. TCU picks and predictions.
Baylor vs TCU odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
TCU was only a 5-point underdog in this game at open, but the Horned Frogs are now getting as many as 7 at some books. An overwhelming majority of the public is backing Baylor here, but it does appear to be the public that is moving the line — as well as the Patterson news. The total, meanwhile, is down from 59.0 to either 58.0 or 58.5.
Baylor vs TCU picks
Picks made on 11/5/2021 at 1:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Baylor vs TCU game info
• Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
• Date: Saturday, November 6, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Baylor vs TCU betting preview
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Baylor: Kalon Barnes WR (Questionable), Terrel Bernard LB (Out), Jacob Zeno QB (Out)
TCU: Wyatt Harris DE (Questionable), Carter Ware TE (Questionable), Bud Clark S (Out), Mikel Barkley WR (Out)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Baylor is 5-0 against the spread in its last five games as a favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for Baylor vs. TCU.
Baylor vs TCU predictions
Baylor -6.0 (-110)
If you are keeping your sportsbook options open, you can still find Baylor as only a 6-point favorite, and that is pretty damn good when considering the team is laying 6.5 or 7 everywhere else. The Bears have covered in six of their last seven games, with five of those six covers being wins by at least seven points, which would mean a victory for Baylor bettors in this one. Meanwhile, TCU has lost five of its last six games both straight-up and against the spread. The team’s lone straight-up and against-the-spread win in that stretch was against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who also fired their head coach this season.
While TCU is fortunate to have an experienced coach like Jerry Kill running the show until a long-term replacement is found, it’s really hard to imagine the Horned Frogs competing with a good football team right now. For the last 21 years, Patterson has been the identity of TCU, taking the program to heights that it might never reach again. Sure, the last few seasons have been rough, but most of these players committed to the Horned Frogs to play for Patterson. Now, they are all faced with some real uncertainty and have to face a Bears team that is better than them in every facet of the game.
The real mismatch in this game will be the Baylor offense against the TCU defense. The Horned Frogs are allowing 31.5 points per game this season, which is more than all but 26 FBS teams. Meanwhile, Baylor is absolutely clicking on offense this year, as the Bears are scoring 37.4 points per game. Quarterback Gerry Bohanon has thrown for 1,753 yards with 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions this year, and he has also added another seven scores on the ground. His dual-threat ability should present some real problems for TCU’s struggling defense, and it doesn’t help that the Horned Frogs will also have to deal with running back Abram Smith. On the year, Smith has rushed for 930 yards and 11 touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, head coach Dave Aranda should have a plan for his defense to contain the TCU offense. Whether it’s Max Duggan or Chandler Morris that is under center for the Horned Frogs, a balanced Baylor defense awaits and it’s hard to see TCU scoring enough to keep up here.
Over 58.0 (-110)
The Over is 5-2 in Baylor’s last seven games and it’s also 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Bears and Horned Frogs. This year, you should expect something of a shootout, as Baylor shouldn’t have much trouble putting up points against this TCU defense. At the same time, the Horned Frogs have enough offensive firepower to score a decent amount while playing catchup here.
Under Aranda, the Over is 5-3-1 when Baylor has played as a favorite. The Over is also 4-1 when TCU is coming off back-to-back straight-up losses over the last three seasons. Don’t be surprised if the final score here is something like 42-28.
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