LSU vs Alabama Picks and Predictions: Not So Happy Trails

Tigers head coach Ed Orgeron presided over more memorable rivalry games between LSU and Alabama, but his final one won't be a fond farewell. Our college football betting picks break down why the Tide will roll all over Orgeron's Tigers.

Last Updated: Nov 6, 2021 3:25 PM ET Read Time: 5 min
Bryce Young Alabama Crimson Tide college football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Remember when LSU taking on Alabama was must-watch college football? For like one year? Yeah, the Joe Burrow season seems like eons ago, as the Crimson Tide will be at least 28.5-point favorites against the Tigers for the second year in a row.

The Tide have bounced back from their outlier loss with a pair of large wins, while LSU put up a dud last week after it was announced head coach Ed Orgeron would be moving on after the season.

Find out who we like with our free college football betting picks and predictions for LSU vs. Alabama on November 5th.

LSU vs Alabama odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Alabama opened this SEC West showdown as 28.5-point home favorites and the line has yet to move off of that number. The total has seen a little more action, moving up from 65 to 66.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

LSU vs Alabama picks

Picks made on 11/5/2021 at 7:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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LSU vs Alabama game info

Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Date: Saturday, November 6, 2021
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

LSU vs Alabama betting preview


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

LSU: Derek Stingley Jr. CB (Out), Ali Gaye DE (Out), Anthony Bradford OL (Out), Eli Ricks CB (Out), Cordale Flott CB (Doubtful), Chasen Hines G (Questionable).
Alabama: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Alabama is 11-2 against the first-half spread in its last 13 games against SEC opponents. Find more NCAA betting trends for LSU vs. Alabama.

LSU vs Alabama predictions

It seems like a lifetime ago when Joe Burrow and the LSU Tigers were one of the greatest college football teams of all time. But now when Ed Orgeron says, “How bout ‘dem Tigers,” it takes on a whole new meaning.

LSU was expecting more out of this season but after four losses and several key injuries, Orgeron’s time in Death Valley is coming to a close. So, the question is, will the Tigers put up one last fight against rival Alabama?

Well, the Tigers do a couple of things well that you need to beat Alabama. They rush the passer well and QB Max Johnson can throw the ball a bit against an Alabama pass defense that has allowed 289 passing yards per game over the last three contests.

But the Tide are 28.5-point favorites for a reason. Bryce Young is having an outstanding season, completing 70 percent of his passes for 2,453 yards with 26 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Young has a pair of stud wideouts to throw to in John Metchie and Jameson Williams, and a workhorse running back in Brian Robinson.

They go against an injury-riddled and struggling LSU defense that ranks 98th in yards per play and 85th in points per game. Young should attack the banged-up Tigers secondary early before Robinson puts the game away late. 

The spread of 28 seems like a good number, but backing Bama here feels like the right side, and you kind of get the feeling that Nick Saban won’t let off the gas to show Orgeron he’s not on his level. Roll Tide.

As noted, I think Young and Alabama sling the ball around on LSU early and often in this game, and that shouldn’t be a surprise. The Tide’s 6.6 yards per play against FBS opponents ranks 13th nationally and their 45.9 points per game is second-best in the country.

But Bama is particularly potent in the first half of games. Alabama averages 24.3 first-half points per game this season, that’s the fourth-best in the country, and when they are playing at Bryant-Denny Stadium, that bumps all the way up to 30.3 points.

Meanwhile, LSU has not played well in the first halves when playing on the road, scoring a minuscule 6.0 first-half points per game. That ranks 119th nationally. 

And, of course, Alabama has been a phenomenal first-half bet against SEC opponents going 11-2 ATS in the first half in its last 13 conference games. This feels like a safe bet once again.

College football parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our LSU vs. Alabama picks, you could win $25.00 on a $10 bet?

Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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