The Texas Tech Red Raiders travel to take on the Utah Utes for the Fox Big Noon Kickoff in a potential Big 12 Championship preview.
My Texas Tech vs. Utah predictions and college football picks explain why neither team's undefeated start is particularly impressive and why we shouldn't expect a ton of early scoring on Saturday, September 20.
Texas Tech vs Utah prediction
Texas Tech vs Utah best bet: Under 29.5 1H (-134)
Getting out of bed early to do anything on a Saturday morning isn’t easy. Trust me, I know—I’m up at 7 am EST to watch the early Premier League match.
Asking players to do that ahead of a 10 am kickoff for a very important football game is an even tougher ask. But that’s what Texas Tech and Utah are facing ahead of their noon EST kickoff.
And that’s going to lead to a bit of a sleepy start, one of the reasons I’m taking the first half under. But it’s just one of many.
Let’s start with the Utah kicking game. Dillon Curtis has made just two of his five field goal attempts this season. All have been from at least 40 yards, but that inaccuracy means Utah will likely need to get close to score points.
Doing so won’t be easy. Texas Tech’s yet to play anybody worth a darn, but the defensive line is manned by multiple NFL talents. They will be tasked with harassing Devon Dampier and helping limit Utah’s strong rushing attack.
That rushing attack is going to be relied upon early and often. The Utes are averaging nearly 50 run plays per game this season, with Wayshan Parker and NaQuari Rogers getting a fairly even split along with Dampier. But Texas Tech currently ranks second in defensive run success.
Dampier has yet to throw an interception and is second in the Big XII in completion rate, and he will see both those marks tested against this Red Raider defense. But the same goes for Behren Morton, who has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Utah ranks near the top nationally in defensive pass EPA/play and early downs EPA/play. Morton has thrived on explosive downfield plays, but this is a game where he’s likely going to need to spread it around and take what he can get.
It’ll take a bit of time for these offenses to get going, and when they do, I expect to see time-consuming possessions with touchdowns difficult to come by. A low-scoring first quarter should be enough to see us cash the first-half under—with a total that is currently a point higher at FanDuel than at many other books.
Texas Tech vs Utah same-game parlay
Texas Tech’s passing game is going to keep this game close. The Red Raiders have too many weapons for Utah’s defense to deal with, and Morton has shown he trusts all of them. Add in the kicking woes for the Utes, and I’ll gladly take three points plus the hook.
Rogers is a wrecking ball of a runner, one who punishes defenders and loves to lower his shoulder. It’s why he’s relied upon at the goal line, and he’s delivered with a touchdown in all three of Utah’s games so far. Utah will need him to finish out a drive at some point and I’ll bank on him finding a way to deliver.
Texas Tech vs Utah SGP
- Under 28.5 1H
- Texas Tech +3.5
- NaQuari Rogers anytime touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Slow burn in Salt Lake City
- Terrance Carter Jr might be a tight end on the depth chart, but he’s essentially a wide receiver in this offense. And he’s a dangerous one, with 194 yards and three touchdowns on just 10 catches this season.
- Once he’s got the ball in his hands, Carter becomes a nightmare. He has great speed, and his hurdle against Oregon State showed off his terrific athleticism. A 40-yard floor is easily attainable here.
Texas Tech vs Utah SGP
- Under 28.5 1H
- Texas Tech +3.5
- NaQuari Rogers anytime touchdown
- Terrance Carter Jr. ver 38.5 receiving yards
Texas Tech vs Utah game predictions
Texas Tech vs Utah moneyline prediction
It’s hard to bet against Utah to win at home. The Utes have lost just twice in 17 home games since 2022 as a favorite, and the ability to grind out tough yards behind a strong offensive line will help keep the Red Raider offense on the sideline just enough to get the win.
Texas Tech vs Utah spread prediction
Texas Tech has a passing attack that can keep it in any game, a very strong defensive line, and a better special teams unit. Utah’s inability to consistently make field goals and its limited downfield passing attack will keep this game close.
Texas Tech vs Utah Over/Under prediction
I’m leaning Under on this one. A 10 am local time start is rough for everyone involved, and I think both offenses will find it tough to put up touchdowns consistently. Add in Utah’s determination to establish the ground game, and a rising total will work in our favor.
Texas Tech vs Utah odds
- Spread: Texas Tech +3.5 | Utah -3.5
- Moneyline: Texas Tech +149 | Utah -177
- Over/Under: Over 56.5 | Under 56.5
How to watch Texas Tech vs Utah
| Location | Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date | Saturday, September 20, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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