The last thing the Texas Tech Red Raiders needed was a major personnel distraction. Thankfully, it'll be well in the rearview mirror by the time the season kicks off.
Losing star quarterback Brendan Sorsby to a gambling-related eligibility ban certainly put a dent in the Red Raiders' national title chances, but oddsmakers are still bullish on the team's chances of making waves. And at least one Covers expert believes Texas Tech is still far and away the best team in the conference.
Here's a look at the recent history of Texas Tech win totals, along with predictions on whether the Red Raiders will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 10.5:
Texas Tech 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
OVER 10.5 | ⚪ |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 10.5 | 🟢 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 11.5* | 🟡 |
| Chris Level | Red Raider Sports (On3) | OVER 10.5 | 🟢 |
*Pick made at alternate win total.
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Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
Even without quarterback Brendan Sorsby, Texas Tech is still the best team in the Big 12. They avoid BYU and Utah and host Houston. I project them to be double-digit favorites in every game.
Rob Paul
The Brendan Sorsby saga shouldn’t change a whole lot for Texas Tech when it comes to winning a Big 12 title. Joey McGuire has sounded confident that QB Will Hammond, who’s coming off a torn ACL, will be ready by Week 3 at the latest. Hammond shined for Texas Tech last year against Utah, and he’s surrounded by NFL talent.
The Red Raiders have the best running back trio in the country, return an experienced offensive line, and have added a quartet of transfers to a pass-catching corps that brings back Terrance Carter Jr. and Coy Eakin.
GM James Blanchard also addressed the front seven with a top portal class led by Mateen Ibirogba, Adam Trick, Austin Romaine, and Trey White, who join a defense that returns Ben Roberts, Brice Pollock, and John Curry. Oh, and Texas Tech’s schedule is ranked 128th in SOS (.457).
Colby Marchio
Are the Red Raiders worth taking to go 12-0 at +200, or would you rather take them to win the Big 12 at -105?
The conference winner price is where I lean, as it gives you a little more room for error if they drop a game during the season.
The biggest red flag, however, is how well Brendan Sorsby’s replacement will perform. Sophomore Will Hammond is expected to enter the season as the Week 1 starter after suffering a torn ACL in October last year.
Outside of the quarterback question, the rest of this roster looks strong. The running game remains intact, and the receiving corps should be one of the better groups in the conference.
Defensively, they should once again have one of the best units in the country. Even after losing talent to the NFL, Shiel Wood’s defense added some elite defensive linemen, so expect this group to remain among the nation’s best in 2026.
📰 Texas Tech media win total predictions
Chris Level, Red Raider Sports (On3)
Texas Tech win totals, odds and results (2005-25)
(Texas Tech historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.5 | -145 | +120 | 11 | Over |
| 2024 | 7.5 | -115 | -105 | 8 | Over |
| 2023 | 7.5 | -105 | -115 | 6 | Under |
| 2022 | 5.5 | -135 | +110 | 7 | Over |
| 2021 | 5 | -150 | +125 | 6 | Over |
| 2019 | 6.5 | +120 | -140 | 4 | Under |
| 2016 | 6 | -140 | +120 | 5 | Under |
| 2011 | 7 | -110 | -120 | 5 | Under |
| 2010 | 8 | +105 | -135 | 7 | Under |
| 2009 | 7.5 | -130 | +100 | 8 | Over |
| 2008 | 9 | - | - | 11 | Over |
| 2006 | 8.5 | +155 | -175 | 7 | Under |
| 2005 | 7.5 | -130 | +100 | 9 | Over |
Wins reflect regular season only; postseason results are excluded.
🔑 Key takeaways
- Over-bettor-friendly: Texas Tech has handsomely rewarded those who have put their faith in the win total Over, surpassing the number in four of the previous five seasons. And while two of those were sweats, the Red Raiders made things easier on the Over crowd in 2025, beating the number by 2 1/2 wins.
- Uncharted territory: Expectations have never been this high for the Texas Tech football program – at least from an odds perspective. 2026 marks the first time since Sports Odds history began tracking win total odds that the Red Raiders have entered a season with a total north of 10.
- Spotty track record: We only have four examples of TTU carrying a total of 8+ victories into the season, and the results are mixed. Texas Tech is 2-2 to the Over in those four seasons, though it hadn't happened in 15 years prior to last season's 8.5.
How Texas Tech win totals are priced
If your magic number for the Red Raiders is 11, you'll have to get creative with your win total bet.
Texas Tech pays a paltry -200 on the O10.5, with the Under priced at +160. The gap is even larger one win up, with the Over 11.5 at +200 and the U11.5 at -250 (For what it's worth, the Red Raiders have the second-shortest odds to go 12-0, behind only Notre Dame at +160).
This is when the search for value should lead you to the Exact Wins market, where Texas Tech at exactly 11 victories pays a much friendlier +160. The margin for error is slimmer, but you'll know that going in.
The Red Raiders are an incredible 15-3-1 ATS in 19 conference games over the past two seasons.
Texas Tech win total FAQs
Will Texas Tech make the CFP?
Oddsmakers like TTU's chances, listing the Red Raiders at -200 to reach the playoffs.
What is Texas Tech's projected win total?
Texas Tech enters 2026 with a win total of 10.5; the Over is set at -200, with the Under at +160.
Who is Texas Tech's starting QB?
Will Hammond gets the nod as the Red Raiders' QB1 after throwing for 680 yards and seven touchdowns as a reserve last season.
What is the most notable Texas Tech win total trend?
The Under on the Red Raiders' win total has landed at plus money in four of the previous six seasons, including 2026.
What's the best bet for Texas Tech this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the OVER on 10.5 wins is the far stronger play.
