Tennessee State vs Notre Dame Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Irish Won't Hold Back

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have not faced an FCS opponent since the NCAA split Division I football into two separate divisions in the mid-1970s. That changes this afternoon with a visit from the Tennessee State Tigers and Eddie George.

Yes... that Eddie George, the former Broadway star perhaps best known for his chops in Julius Caesar and Othello. Oh, and for winning the Heisman Trophy at Ohio State and starring for the Tennessee Titans for nine seasons.

Entering his third year leading the Tigers, George faces his toughest task yet, finding a way to keep Tennessee State competitive with Notre Dame — spoiler alert, George is in for a rude awakening.

College football odds have been hard to come by for this clash, but with spreads starting to appear, here are my free college football picks for Tennessee State vs. Notre Dame on September 2.

Tennessee State vs Notre Dame best odds

Tennessee State vs Notre Dame picks and predictions

This will be the biggest spread Notre Dame has enjoyed in at least 17 years, reaching as far back as the Covers database offers. The high of it may go further back than that, quite possibly through the modern era to before World War II.

The Irish were healthy 45.5-point favorites against Bowling Green in 2019 when their offense diced through a Brian VanGorder defense like that was what the defense was designed for.

Since 2006, Notre Dame has been a home favorite of 34 or more just four times, all four of those coming in the last five seasons. While the competitive difference between Ball State in 2018 — a team that went 4-8 with a 2-3 record in one-score games — and Tennessee State in 2023 is stark, it should be noted the Irish ground their teeth to a 24-16 victory against the Cardinals just five years ago.

The greater difference between that 2018 tilt and this afternoon’s may be Notre Dame’s quarterback situation.

Those Irish were beginning to realize Brandon Wimbush would lower the ceiling on the season in 2018: offensive coordinator Tommy Rees eventually navigated switching QBs in the middle of an unbeaten season en route to the College Football Playoff, a bit of underappreciated deft coaching. These Irish are just beginning to realize the joy of having a calm and proven veteran field general in Wake Forest graduate transfer Sam Hartman.

Hartman will want to use today to find proof of the concept of a downfield threat in Notre Dame’s passing game. The Irish have a few options in theory — namely sophomore Tobias Merriweather, freshman Jaden Greathouse, and senior converted running back Chris Tyree — but not one that has shown enough on a Saturday to be trusted next week at North Carolina State or in three weeks against No. 3 Ohio State.

While Notre Dame and head coach Marcus Freeman will try to be respectful in the rout of Tennessee State and Freeman’s childhood hero, George, a few deep shots will serve the greater purpose of the Irish season.

That should stake an early Notre Dame lead. Then the Irish will run through the Tigers’ defense, one of the country’s best offensive lines incapable of not creating massive holes against the overmatched FCS trenches. In other words, even as Notre Dame tries to be respectful and show restraint, there are few ways to intentionally stop an effective rushing game.

A few deep scores will add possessions, and with the Irish unlikely to punt at any point, a 56- or 63-point outing is certainly within reason.

FCS-FBS lines can move quickly, but as long as this one does not go higher than -52, it should be a sure Notre Dame bet. Higher than that is betting on 100% efficiency, while 52 or lower would allow one possession to become a field goal rather than a touchdown.

My best bet: Notre Dame -46.5 (-111 at LeoVegas)

Tennessee State vs Notre Dame spread and Over/Under analysis

The total will hinge on Tennessee State. If the Tigers can break a big play, just one, to get to the end zone, that should be enough to notch the Over.

The problem will be that Tennessee State had a terrible offensive line in 2022 and is now replacing four starters, leaning heavily on transfers. How much have they gelled without playing a game? How good are they individually in the first place?

Much like Notre Dame’s offensive line will struggle to be reined in, and understandably so, the Irish defensive line should live in the Tigers’ backfield, preventing Tennessee State quarterback Dreylin Ellis — a former Austin Peay transfer — from having the time to look downfield.

The only other feasible route to a big scoring play would hinge on not one but multiple blown tackles. One missed tackle could lead to a big gain, but Notre Dame’s defense will have enough overall speed, at least compared to Tennessee State, for another defender to track down any loose receiver before he can get to the end zone.

Betting the Under may be betting on a shutout, but that may be the only tactic tolerable considering the undoubted respect Freeman and Hartman will try to find offensively.

Tennessee State vs Notre Dame betting trend to know

This is the largest spread Notre Dame has seen in at least 17 years. Find more college football betting trends for Tennessee State vs Notre Dame.

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