TCU vs Oklahoma Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Fade Sooners With Quarterback Uncertainty

You’re going to need a bigger piece of paper if you want to write down all of the Big 12 Championship Game scenarios heading into the final week of the regular season. 

One squad that remains in contention is the Oklahoma Sooners, who can help their cause with a win on Friday night against the TCU Horned Frogs.

What a fall from grace it’s been for the Frogs — a year after making the National Championship game, they need a win Friday to simply reach bowl eligibility.

Looking at college football odds, the Sooners are 10.5-point home favorites while the total is set at 63.

Read on for my best bet and free college football picks for TCU vs Oklahoma on Friday, November 24.

TCU vs Oklahoma best odds

TCU vs Oklahoma picks and predictions

A huge part of this handicap is about the health of the Oklahoma Sooners' signal-caller. 

Star quarterback Dillon Gabriel was knocked out of last week’s game with an upper-body injury to end the first half and he did not return. The staff has been optimistic about his chances to play this week, but we haven't gotten much of an update since then. Therefore, we’re dealing with a strong level of uncertainty heading into this matchup. 

In regards to Gabriel and receiver Jalil Farooq (630 receiving yards, two touchdowns), head coach Brent Venables said “I feel like both of those guys, if they continue to progress throughout the week, they’ll be available this weekend.”

While that quote is positive, it's far from definitive, so for now we’re left to operate with the assumption that Gabriel has over a 50% chance — at best — to suit up for the regular season finale. The most likely explanation is that he suffered a concussion and must clear protocol, which makes this bad timing with his team on a short week and returning home from Provo. 

Five-star true freshman Jackson Arnold burned his redshirt last week and will be the star if Gabriel is unavailable. The two have a similar dual-threat skill set so the offense won’t change much regardless of who's under center. That’s good news for a unit that ranks 13th in EPA per play and eighth in success rate while putting up 40.8 PPG (fourth nationally). 

The TCU Horned Frogs are coming off an explosive offensive outing in which they had four different scoring plays of 25+ yards en route to a 42-17 victory over Baylor. That snapped a three-game losing streak and made it the Frogs’ second victory in their last seven games. 

They've been playing better lately if you look between the lines. Two weeks ago, they fell by just three points to a strong Texas team a week after losing by seven points in Lubbock. They narrowly won the yardage battle but coughed up two turnovers to Texas Tech’s zero. 

They’ll look to keep that offensive success going against an Oklahoma defense that has shown some cracks in the armor lately, allowing 217 rushing yards to an inept BYU offense last week and at least 5.5 yards per play in five of their last six games before that contest. 

If BYU had success running the ball then TCU figures to as well. The Frogs have a strong offensive line (19th in line yards, sixth in front seven havoc) to lead a potent rushing attack (16th in rushing success rate) spearheaded by workhorse running back Emani Bailey, who has 1,219 scrimmage yards and seven TDs. 

Josh Hoover has been up and down at quarterback but he’s coming off a strong game in which he threw for 412 yards and two touchdowns against Baylor.

On the other side of things, Joe Gillespie got the better of his matchup with Jeff Lebby a year ago as his defense limited the Sooners to 24 points on 355 yards and 4.4 yards per play. His squad has been playing better lately, holding five of their last seven opponents to 5.5 yards per play or fewer. 

Big 12 is a conference of chaos as there isn’t a ton separating the top teams from the bottom teams. This line has been coming in a bit, which could be some pessimism regarding Gabriel’s status, and I think it’s warranted regardless as TCU still has plenty to play for to reach a bowl game. 

Give me the Frogs plus the points.

My best bet: TCU +10.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

TCU vs Oklahoma same-game parlay

TCU +10.5

Over 63.5

+254 at FanDuel

Oklahoma should be able to move the ball regardless of who is under center. Arnold is as talented of a quarterback as there is in the country despite lacking experience, and he showed impressive poise as he settled in against BYU and made a few key third-down conversions to seal the game.

TCU has been a turnstile defensively this year, ranking 71st in EPA per play and 82nd in success rate while failing to create disruptive plays up front (118th in front seven havoc). 

On the flip side, TCU’s strong rushing attack has paved the way to a ranking of 14th in success rate. Oklahoma’s defense hasn’t played at an elite level for seven weeks now and ranks 117th in explosiveness — a concerning number for a team looking to play for a conference championship and New Year’s Six bowl.

Both sides have a better offense than defense so I see a high-scoring game. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

TCU vs Oklahoma spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened at Oklahoma -12.5 but has since moved down to -10.5 with some spots even showing -10. The total resides between 63 and 64 depending on where you look. 

Oklahoma hasn’t produced to expectations lately, covering just one of their last five games. That’s what happens when you start receiving inflated spreads in a conference of chaos with relatively little separation between most programs. 

TCU has covered two straight and three of its last five games. It’s been a two-score underdog just once this season — two weeks ago against Texas, when the Frogs were +13 but covered the spread by 10 points in a 29-26 loss. 

If you’re looking for an alternative bet on the total, the Sooners have typically started games fast and are 9-4 O/U against the first-half total across their last 13 games. They have hit their team total Over in three straight games and forecast for a productive day regardless of who is under center. 

TCU vs Oklahoma betting trend to know

Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS across its last five games. Find more college football betting trends for TCU vs Oklahoma.

TCU vs Oklahoma game info

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