South Florida vs Tulsa Odds, Picks and Predictions: Not for the Faint of Heart

South Florida has had an awful season up to now. The Bulls are 1-9 and haven't looked particularly competitive most of the season, coming into this matchup with eight consecutive losses.

Things haven't been much better for Tulsa, but the Golden Hurricane managed to get three wins on the season. The last time they won a game was in October when they defeated Temple, and they come into this one on a three-game losing streak.

What's the best bet for this matchup tonight? Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for South Florida vs. Tulsa.

South Florida vs Tulsa best odds

South Florida vs Tulsa picks and predictions

On paper, this looks like an awful game. Both teams have struggled so mightily throughout the season that you also have to wonder about motivation.

However, South Florida can have some success on the ground. I'm giving the Bulls the advantage against the Tulsa defense in rush success, along with line yards. They have posted a rushing EPA of .30 on the season, which is quite solid among the conference. South Florida now gets a rushing defense that has allowed an EPA of nearly .20 on the ground.

Along with that, the Golden Hurricane rushing defense is allowing 4.7 yards per carry, which is the second-worst in the conference. Aside from the matchup dictating that they should run the ball, South Florida will not be interested in throwing it around anyway. Starting QB Gerry Bohanan had season-ending surgery back in October, and South Florida hasn't had much consistency under center since then.

Katravis Marsh has thrown interceptions in back-to-back games and, in general, has made some questionable decisions with the ball since taking the starting QB duties over. When Tulsa looks in the mirror, it sees itself in many respects. And because of that, what I just said about the South Florida offense vs. the Tulsa defenses holds true when reversed.

There's only one rushing defense that ranks worse than the Tulsa one, and it's the Bulls. South Florida is last in the American Conference, giving up an average of 6.0 yards per carry. In addition to that, their advanced metrics such as line yards and rushing EPA, all grade out poorly.

Tulsa doesn't exactly make its hay on the ground, but its offense hasn't been good anywhere. It's getting one of the worst rush defenses in America, and I expect the Golden Hurricane to do everything they can to take advantage.

These two offenses have struggled dramatically throughout the season with plenty of self-inflicted issues. Tulsa ranks third to last in the conference in penalties, and both rank near the bottom of the conference in turnovers.

I'm relying on both of these teams to find ways to stall out on drives — like they have all season — and to run the ball as much as possible. Those two combos should make for a clock that doesn't stop running much and a low-scoring game to seize the Under.

My best bet: Under 57.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

South Florida vs Tulsa spread analysis

The spread for this matchup opened up at Tulsa -12 and saw some quick buys on Tulsa. The number now sets anywhere from 13 to 13.5 points across all books.

I don't think that number is a good indicator of how much of a difference there is between these two. As I've illustrated, both are pretty bad and have decent matchups. Handicapping the motivation of either of these teams is nearly impossible and makes me want to stay away.

If I'm taking a side, I'll sprinkle South Florida to win outright, but I will likely stay away. The trends between these two schools don't give you much help either. These are two bad teams that have had awful seasons.

Consequently, neither boast good ATS records over their past few games. South Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five games against a team with a losing record. And, not to be outdone, Tulsa is 0-6 ATS in its previous six games.

South Florida vs Tulsa Over/Under analysis

I'm on the Under in this game. Both teams will struggle to move the ball through the air and will be forced to run the ball. That means the clock should run early and often, which will help our bid for the Under a ton.

The Under is 5-0 in South Florida's last five games on turf. I'm relying on the clock and the inefficiencies of these offenses to not be able to produce consistent drives in order to successfully cash the Under.

South Florida vs Tulsa betting trend to know

The Under is 29-14-1 in South Florida's last 44 games in November. Find more NCAA betting trends for South Florida vs. Tulsa.

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