SMU vs Boston College Prediction: Today's Fenway Bowl Odds and Picks

SMU and Boston College will meet this afternoon to play at one of the most unique venues in the latest bowl game odds.

It has been a terrific season for the Mustangs, arriving at this game ranked No. 24 in the country. SMU enters the matchup riding a nine-game winning streak, securing its latest victory in the American Conference Championship game.

In contrast, Boston College limped into the postseason. Midway through the season, the Eagles held a five-game winning streak, but their year ultimately concluded with three straight losses.

What's the best bet in this one? Find out as we dissect the college football odds and give our college football picks and predictions for SMU vs. Boston College on December 28. 

SMU vs Boston College best odds

SMU vs Boston College picks and predictions

This isn't the typical non-Power Five vs. Power Five matchup you'd expect. 

Yes, these teams are in different classes, but the non-Power Five side is far superior. The SMU Mustangs have been impressive throughout the season and boast a well-rounded group. They currently hold one of the longest winning streaks in the country, and even in their losses against TCU and Oklahoma remained competitive.

The most decisive mismatch that can be found in this matchup is the Mustangs passing offense against the passing defense of the Boston College Eagles. I want to exploit that in the prop market, but unfortunately, no passing markets were made available for this matchup.

The next best way to do this is taking SMU to go Over its 3.5 touchdown total as our best bet.

I struggle to see where Boston College slows down SMU. This is a fairly pedestrian defense against an offense that has been lethal, especially in the last month of the season.

I previously mentioned the passing element of this one and for a good reason. The aerial attack took a hit when quarterback Preston Stone went down with a season-ending injury in the finale. However, Kevin Jennings looked capable of stepping in to win the conference championship game when he threw for over 200 yards and ran for 63.

However, this handicap is less about who is under center for SMU and more about the issues that Boston College has defensively against the pass. It's a unit that ranks 125th in EPA per play and one that has also lost Shitta Sillah, CJ Cinkscales, and Elijah Jones to the transfer portal/draft.

Over the Eagles last three games, they surrendered an average of 39 points. Even if SMU can't capitalize through the air, its rushing offense has plenty of firepower to move the ball against the defense to eclipse this total. 

My best bet: SMU Over 3.5 touchdowns (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

SMU vs Boston College same-game parlay

SMU Over 3.5 touchdowns

SMU first half team total Over 14.5 points

+156 at DraftKings

The market options in this one are bare. With that in mind, I'm forced into a highly correlated simple parlay.

I expect SMU to come out of the gates with some firepower as it continues to ride the momentum of an impressive season. The Mustangs will be motivated to end the season on a high note against a Power Five opponent, especially after falling short in both opportunities during the regular season.

We're also pairing our best bet with SMU to score more than 14.5 points in the first half because its defensive opposition is not equipped to stop them. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

SMU vs Boston College spread and Over/Under analysis

Of course, if you read the above handicap, I like SMU to cover. I placed a unit on it at the widely available number of 10.5.

We've already delved into the offensive pressure that I anticipate Boston College will face in this matchup. However, what solidifies my choice on the spread is the defensive component. The SMU pass rush is extremely formidable, ranking in the Top 50 nationally.

In addition, the Mustangs lead the nation in defensive touchdowns, which is problematic against Thomas Castellanos. While the sophomore quarterback has shown some promise at times, he's also delivered some poor decision-making, leading to his 13 interceptions. I wouldn't be surprised to see him throw another here. 

I have no real feel for the total or lean to either side as it's directly in line with what I projected. Boston College has undoubtedly been on a run of Overs, as seven of the last 10 games for the Eagles have gone Over. Meanwhile, SMU has seen a recent trend of mainly balance, with six of its previous 10 contests cashing the Over.

SMU vs Boston College betting trend to know

SMU has hit the first quarter game total Over in their last nine games (+9.20 Units / 92% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for SMU vs Boston College.

SMU vs Boston College game info

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