As the college football regular season ends, an important balance must be struck in your bets. You have more information than ever, so bets should be made with conviction. But resist the temptation to bet more than usual simply because it is the final week of the season.
One way to strike that balance is to lean into any found edges. If 13 weeks of knowledge points toward a side or a prop, then take an alternate spread or prop instead, but for the usual amount of a bet. That discipline both protects your bankroll and raises your expected value.
These Week 14 college football predictions may yield such delights.
College football predictions Week 14
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Utah -19.5 |
+210 |
 Nate Frazier 80+ rushing yards |
+146 |
 Jeremiyah Love 150+ rushing yards |
+130 |
 LSU no touchdown |
+420 |
 Kentucky moneyline |
+128 |
Utah -19.5
An alternate spread of -19.5 compared to the typical spread of -10.5 is bold; do not diminish that. But it is a distinct testament to Utah’s habit of demolishing overmatched opponents.
Betting the Utes is rather simple: When they are clearly the better team, bet them aggressively. When Utah is in a tough game, do not trust it to prevail on the margins.
That is exactly how the Utes have gone 8-3 against the spread this season. The three ATS losses: Texas Tech, BYU, and last week against Kansas State. The slight anomaly among this is last week’s frustration.
Utah ranks No. 9 in the most recent SP+ ratings, well ahead of Kansas State at No. 49. That should not have been a 51-47 game, right?
Two thoughts to keep in mind regarding that tight game. First of all, no team is as good or as bad as its most recent game. Second of all, the Utes won the second half 30-16. They showed their superiority in due time.
Meanwhile, in those eight ATS wins, Utah exceeded bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 18.9 points. When the Utes can merely out-physical an opponent, they do so to the extreme.
Kansas may be hoping to reach a bowl game, but Utah’s strength on both lines should set the terms on Friday afternoon. Most notably, the Utes score 4.57 points per quality drive, No. 4 in the country per CFB-graphs.com, while Kansas gives up 4.09, the 16th-worst rate in the country.
Nate Frazier 80+ rushing yards
Georgia Tech’s last four opponents have ranked Nos. 88, 48, 109, and 57 in expected yards added (EPA) per rush, per CFB-graphs. Sure, North Carolina State and Pittsburgh have respectable running games per attempt, but neither particularly likes running the ball, ranking Nos. 32 and 3, respectively, in relative passing rate this season.
Yet all four foes gashed Georgia Tech’s rushing defense. The Yellow Jackets put up Bottom 20 percentile performances against the rush in each of those four games. The leading rushers from those four opponents gained 76 yards, 196 yards, 141 yards, and 201 yards, respectively.
Enter Georgia.
With the No. 11 rushing EPA in the country on an offense that balances runs with passes at about an average rate, the Bulldogs should gash Georgia Tech just as those four previous Yellow Jackets’ opponents did. If that's the case, it will be Nate Frazier breaking loose.
Jeremiyah Love 150+ rushing yards
Notre Dame’s push of Jeremiyah Love’s Heisman candidacy has more logic than simply chasing that stiff-armed statue.
Showcasing the best running back in the country is a blunt way of influencing the CFP selection committee, and the Irish still have hopes of snagging a first-round bye.
For that matter, Notre Dame may have some worries about even making the bracket if Michigan upsets Ohio State or BYU wins the Big 12 — the Irish need to make the statements they can.
Love’s Heisman odds are down to +450 at FanDuel, the third-shortest odds behind Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza (-125) and Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin (+400).
Given those two are likely to face off in the Big Ten title game for both the conference championship and the No. 1 seed in the playoff, Love’s chances of actually winning the Heisman are longer than +450 implies.
But Notre Dame’s playoff concerns are more valid. Fortunately, Love has cleared this alternate number in two of his last five games, and he reached at least 136 yards in two more.
The star RB will have three full weeks to recover before the playoffs. Running up the yardage and the score at Stanford will only serve to help Notre Dame’s positioning.
LSU no touchdown
A rule of thumb: Any comparison to UMass in the 2025 football season is an insult.
Let’s take that a step further: Any time UMass is better than you in any regard in the 2025 football season, it is nothing short of dire.
As of right now, UMass ranks No. 134 in finishing quality drives, ahead of Charlotte and LSU. Note: UMass finished the season 0-12, and Charlotte is a loss away from going 1-11, with the sole win being by one score against FCS-level Monmouth (NJ). These are not teams LSU is usually compared to.
The Tigers rank last in the country in finishing drives — to get out of the cellar, they probably need to score touchdowns on 100% of their quality drives this weekend and on at least three such chances — and No. 116 in touchdown percentage on red-zone drives.
Those struggles will be worsened against Oklahoma, a defense that ranks No. 2 in points allowed per quality drive, behind only Indiana.
The Sooners are shortening games as they win with complementary football, meaning the Tigers will have fewer chances than usual at finding the end zone. And when LSU has those rare chances, there is very little reason to expect anything productive to come from them.
Kentucky moneyline
One team has squandered a chance at the ACC title and thus a chance at the CFP by losing its last two games, both at home, both as a favorite.
The other has won three of its last four games, two as an underdog, in a late-season surge to keep bowl hopes alive.
One team has made a change at quarterback and subsequently failed to reach the end zone against a good but not great SMU defense (No. 28 in EPA per snap against).
The other made a quarterback change in September and has gradually found better offensive performances, outright beneficial against Tennessee and Florida in the last month.
One team’s head coach is rumored for jobs like Florida’s. The other head coach looks more and more likely to stay put into 2026.
One team is Louisville. The other is Kentucky.
My weekly CFB best bets column is 28-41.5-1 this season for -12.77 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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