More than state bragging rights will be on the line when the Vanderbilt Commodores visit the Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday.
Vandy and star QB Diego Pavia still have an outside shot at making the College Football Playoff, but that shot will be missed without a win over the Vols. It won’t be easy, as the Commodores will be slight underdogs in a matchup of two electric offenses.
While it should be an exciting matchup, my Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee predictions and college football picks explain why I’m picking the road dogs to pull off the upset.
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee prediction
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee best bet: Vanderbilt moneyline (+124)
The Vanderbilt Commodores enter this SEC matchup with a 9-2 record and will attempt to win 10 games in a season for the first time in program history.
They are, of course, led by QB Diego Pavia. The exciting dual-threat signal-caller has done it all for the Commodores, throwing for 2,924 yards with 26 touchdowns to just six interceptions while adding 661 yards and eight scores on the ground.
Combine Pavia with some elite weapons like Sedrick Alexander and Eli Stowers, and you have one of the best offenses in the country. Vandy enters this game ranked second in EPA per play and third in offensive success rate, and they should face very little resistance on the ground in this one.
Even though it was months ago, it feels like the Tennessee Volunteers’ season got derailed when it collapsed in an early-season matchup against Georgia. The Volunteers are 7-3 this season, with the most impressive win coming against Kentucky or Mississippi State. They are also 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
Joey Aguilar has been solid in Josh Heupel’s offense, ranking eighth in success rate and 15th in EPA per play. But as noted, a lot of that production has come against inferior opponents. And besides, that’s normally the issue with a Heupel team.
Tennessee has surrendered at least 31 points in six of its seven SEC games this season, and it has been gashed by the run. The Vols rank 121st in the country in defensive success rate vs. the rush. That has resulted in them giving up lots of long scoring drives. They rank 77th in quality drive rate and 100th in points per quality drive.
Aguilar and the Tennessee passing game will get theirs, but Pavia and Alexander will lead the way for the Commodores on the ground here, controlling the tempo of the game. Vanderbilt will show it’s the more physical and battle-tested team, earning the upset win for the Commodores.
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Vanderbilt vs Tennessee same-game parlay
This game has a total of 65.5. There are going to be a lot of touchdowns.
For Vanderbilt, the most productive guy outside of Pavia has been Sederick Alexander. The Commodores' do-it-all running back has scored 12 touchdowns this season, eight rushing and four receiving out of the backfield.
Vandy does a great job of getting him the ball in space to let his skills take over. I don’t expect that to change in this matchup against Tennessee.
Now, the Vols should have some success pushing the ball through the air against this Commodores pass defense that ranks 86th in success rate on dropbacks. That could mean a big day for Tennessee’s top receiver, Chris Brazzell II.
Brazzell has been Aguilar's top target this season, catching 56 balls for 926 yards and eight scores.
Take both Alexander and Brazzell to find the end zone on Saturday.
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee SGP
- Vanderbilt moneyline
- Sederick Alexander anytime TD
- Chris Brazzell anytime TD
Our deep-ball SGP: A Thanksgiving leftovers TD parlay
Let's add Eli Stowers and Star Thomas to this TD bonanza. Stowers is one of the best tight ends in the country, while Thomas has been getting some more work lately and has scored in three of his last four games.
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee SGP
- Sedrick Alexander anytime TD
- Eli Stowers anytime TD
- Chris Brazzell anytime TD
- Star Thomas anytime TD
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee odds
- Spread: Vanderbilt +2.5 | Tennessee -2.5
- Moneyline: Vanderbilt +124 | Tennessee -146
- Over/Under: Over 65.5 | Under 65.5
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee trend to know
Vanderbilt has hit the team total Over in nine of its last 11 games for +6.70 Units and a 53% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Vanderbilt vs Tennessee.
How to watch Vanderbilt vs Tennessee
| Location | Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN |
| Date | Saturday, November 29, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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