The stakes are clear for the Texas Tech Red Raiders: Beat the West Virginia Mountaineers and reach the Big 12 title game, effectively guaranteeing a College Football Playoff berth, as well.
My Texas Tech vs. West Virginia predictions and college football picks recognize the desperation the Mountaineers should play with in what should be a bit of a blowout at kickoff at 12 ET on Saturday, November 29.
Texas Tech vs West Virginia prediction
Texas Tech vs West Virginia best bet: Scotty Fox Jr. Over 145.5 passing yards (-114)
In West Virginia’s first four Big 12 games this season, the Mountaineers ran the ball at least 10% more often than an average team would in a given game state in all four games, peaking at 23.3% against Utah and 21.7% against BYU.
Incompetence and injury forced West Virginia to adjust. In their last four games, the Mountaineers fell short of 10% twice, surprisingly against TCU by actually throwing the ball 4.1% more often than expected. None of those four games reached as high as 18% in relative rush rate.
By no coincidence, Scotty Fox Jr. has thrown for an average of 253 yards in those four games and has cleared this prop each Saturday. Even when dialing back the passing attack at Houston, Fox attempted 22 passes.
West Virginia is far from good, but head coach Rich Rodriguez has at least acknowledged that he is allowed to call passing plays.
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Texas Tech vs West Virginia same-game parlay
West Virginia struggles to put together quality drives on a regular enough basis to expect many points against arguably the best defense in the country. The Mountaineers rank No. 117 in the country in quality drive rate, per CFB-graphs.com, managing them on just 32.0% of possessions.
Texas Tech knows what is at stake. Win and reach the Big 12 title game. The Red Raiders should start swiftly and cruise only late.
Texas Tech vs West Virginia SGP
- Scotty Fox Jr. Over 145.5 passing yards
- West Virginia team total Under 14.5 points
- Texas Tech -13.5 — 1H
Our deep-ball SGP: Take me home
There is no reason to doubt Texas Tech against the spread. The Red Raiders are 9-2 ATS this year, with one of those exceptions coming by the hook as 48.5-point favorites against Kent State, and they have covered four straight. But the thought of packing it in late and cruising to the Big 12 title game would be a natural one, and it should not escalate this same-game parlay to +3002 from +546.
Texas Tech vs West Virginia SGP
- Scotty Fox Jr. Over 145.5 passing yards
- West Virginia team total Under 14.5 points
- Texas Tech -13.5 — 1H
- West Virginia +23.5
Texas Tech vs West Virginia odds
- Spread: Texas Tech -23.5 | West Virginia +23.5
- Moneyline: Texas Tech -2500 | West Virginia +1200
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5
Texas Tech vs West Virginia trend to know
West Virginia has gone 4-0 against the spread in its last four games, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 10.4 points since making the philosophical switch to throwing the ball. Find more college football betting trends for Texas Tech vs West Virginia.
How to watch Texas Tech vs West Virginia
| Location | Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV |
| Date | Saturday, November 29, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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