Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma Odds, Picks and Predictions: Sooners Don't Deserve Favorite Status

The No. 22 Oklahoma State Cowboys and Oklahoma Sooners will square off Saturday at Memorial Stadium in Norman. This will be one of the few remaining meetings in the Bedlam rivalry before Oklahoma moves to the SEC and these two in-state rivals will no longer be scheduled to meet. 

OSU opened this season with a 5-0 SU mark but has lost three of five since then, including an overtime loss to now No. 4-ranked TCU. After a win over Texas, the Sooners were routed at K-State and Kansas on back-to-back weekends. Lately, it’s hard to know what we’re going to get from the Pokes.

The season hasn’t exactly gone according to plan in the transition from Lincoln Riley to Brent Venables, losing five of the past seven games but something's gotta give in this Bedlam battle.

We discuss in our college football picks and predictions for Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma below.

Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma best odds

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Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma picks and predictions

This is a rivalry game between two teams that have been hard to figure out this season.

The Oklahoma Sooners started the season ranked in the Top 10, and it scored 45 or more points in two of the first three games while the defense allowed just 10.0 ppg. The Sooners cashed the Under in all three games, and the Sooners looked like a legit contender once again.

After a loss to Kansas State at home, the Sooners tempered expectations a little, but obviously had a ton to play for, but a 55-24 loss at TCU really splashed cold water on the entire season, forcing the Sooners to have to re-adjust all team goals. A 49-0 loss in the Red River Rivalry game in Dallas to the Texas Longhorns really had Sooner Nation up in arms.

The Sooners have managed a 1-6 ATS mark across the past seven games overall, winning just two times. As such, it’s rather curious that Oklahoma is favored by seven with a hook against a team ranked inside the Top 25 and still has plenty left to play for.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys went 0-for-2 in the state of Kansas but it bounced back against Iowa State with a win and still has an outside chance at the Big 12 Championship Game. If it falls short of the title game, the Cowboys could still end up in an attractive bowl game with another solid win or two, perhaps landing in the Alamo Bowl or another warm-weather location.

The Iowa State game was interesting, too. QB Spencer Sanders missed practice all week due to a family death, and he had no intentions of playing against the Cyclones. He came off the bench and completed 9 of 13 passes for 84 yards, including a late go-ahead touchdown.

Oklahoma State might not be terribly sad that this rivalry is set to come to an end in a few years. Oklahoma has dominated the all-time series 90-19-7, including wins in six of the past seven meetings, and 16 of the past 19 games overall.

However, OSU won 37-33 in Stillwater last season and is primed to once again kick OU while its down. 

My best bet: Oklahoma State +7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma spread analysis

Oklahoma opened as a 5.5-point favorite, but the money came in on the home side. If the line holds, this would be the largest spread in the series since Nov. 30, 2019, when the Sooners were favored by 13.5 points.

Oklahoma ended up winning that game, but the situation was much different, as OU was a national title contender, not struggling to simply attain bowl eligibility.

The Sooners have covered just once in the past seven games while winning outright just twice. Oklahoma hasn’t covered at home since September 3, the regular-season opener, a 45-13 win against UTEP. Things are so much different now than they were then.

The Cowboys have been outscored 85-16 in the past two road games, at Kansas and at Kansas State, but they are 2-2 ATS overall on the road, all inside the conference. In the first two games at Baylor and at TCU, OSU averaged 38.0 ppg.

As an underdog of five or more points, Oklahoma State has covered both times, including that epic 43-40 overtime loss at TCU.

Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma Over/Under analysis

The Cowboys have cashed the Under in three straight games, averaging just 12.0 ppg during the span, including a shutout loss at Kansas State on October 29. It’s been a season of runs, as the 3-0 Under run followed a 5-0 run to the Over.

OU has been more inconsistent, alternating the Under and Over in each of the past six outings, while the Under has outpaced the Over slightly at a 6-4 clip.

Oklahoma has managed to score 33 or more points in each of the past 10 meetings in this series, but it is averaging 31.9 points per game this season. Ironically, the Sooners have scored 33 or more points in all five games at home. 

If Sanders is completely healthy and in the right mind space for his final Oklahoma rivalry game, this could turn out to be a shootout. I like the Cowboys to keep this within one score — if not win outright — and we could see both of these teams come alive offensively.

Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma betting trend to know

The road team is 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this Bedlam Series rivalry. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma.

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