It’s not “Catholics vs. Convicts” anymore, but we still have a marquee matchup on Sunday when Notre Dame faces off against Miami from Hard Rock Stadium.
The Irish are coming off a national championship game defeat to Ohio State and hope to take that final step this season. The Hurricanes have to replace Cam Ward, and hope Carson Beck can fill his shoes in their high-powered offense.
See why I’m backing the Irish with my early college football picks and Notre Dame vs. Miami predictions for Sunday, August 31.
Notre Dame vs Miami predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Notre Dame vs Miami spread pick: Notre Dame -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Notre Dame’s pass defense will be one of the best in the country this season, but the run defense was an issue at times last season. That’s why the Irish focused on improving the front seven in the offseason. We will quickly find out how well they did against a strong Miami offensive line.
But Miami will need the ground game to perform well in order to open things up for Carson Beck, as he tries to connect with a rebuilt wide receiving corps. Failure to do so could be problematic for the Canes.
That’s because Notre Dame returns one of the best rushing attacks in the nation, and it’ll be relied upon to put CJ Carr in a position to win. The freshman quarterback makes his first-ever start and is doing so on the road against a very strong opponent. Against a Miami defense that struggled at times last year, and has a whole new starting secondary, establishing play action will be important.
Notre Dame returns seven starters on defense, and for me that is the key to this game. The Irish will find success in slowing down the Miami offense, and if they can get a lead it will allow them to bring pressure on Beck.
I don’t see Miami’s defense being improved to the point of stopping the Irish rushing attack on a consistent basis, and Carr won’t face a terribly hostile environment despite being on the road. I’ll take the Irish to cover the spread as long as we are getting the hook to keep it under a field goal.
Early Notre Dame vs Miami total pick: Under 49.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
I fully expect offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock to lean heavily on the Irish ground game in this contest. Notre Dame knows they must put Carr in as many comfortable positions as possible, and staying ahead of the chains while setting up the play-action game is the best way to do that.
On the other side, opponents showed last season that if they could get to Beck they could cause major problems for the Georgia offense. Both Kentucky and Ole Miss got to him on at least 30% of dropbacks, and the Bulldogs managed just 13 points vs. the Wildcats and lost to the Rebels.
Notre Dame’s secondary is elite, and its run defense is very solid. If Miami can’t establish the run, and Beck is put under pressure, the Canes will struggle mightily to move the ball. That’s why I expect we will see plenty of handoffs early in this one from the home team, especially as they reload at wideout.
The total for this game has dropped from 53.5 to 49.5 but I still lean Under here down to 47.5 points. Beck will be put under pressure and Notre Dame’s secondary will prevent the big play downfield, while the Irish will look to control the clock and limit the amount of risk Carr has to take.
Notre Dame vs Miami odds
- Notre Dame vs. Miami spread: Miami +2.5
- Notre Dame vs. Miami moneyline: Notre Dame -137, Miami +114
- Notre Dame vs. Miami Over/Under: 49.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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