North Texas vs UTSA Odds, Picks and Predictions: Mean Green Seek Upset in C-USA Championship

North Texas was thoroughly stuffed the last time it faced UTSA, unable to make headway with its ground game during a last-second loss. Our betting picks break down why the Mean Green stand to make literal strides with their rushing attack.

Last Updated: Dec 2, 2022 4:33 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Isaiah Johnson North Texas Mean Green College Football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Conference USA Championship is going to be an all-Texas affair as the UTSA Roadrunners go up against the North Texas Mean Green this evening.

The C-USA title game is a rematch of a Week 8 slugfest that UTSA escaped with a 31-27 win. However, while UTSA did knock off North Texas in that meeting, the Roadrunners failed to cover the spread against the Mean Green — and we could be looking at a similar situation here.

Could North Texas actually pull off the upset, or will UTSA win against the Mean Green for the second time this season? Continue reading for free college football picks for North Texas vs. UTSA on December 2. 

North Texas vs UTSA best odds

North Texas vs UTSA picks and predictions

When North Texas and UTSA met in Week 8, it was a back-and-forth affair. The teams couldn't get rolling on offense until late with the score 6-3 at halftime.

There were 35 points scored in the fourth quarter alone, with the last being a 10-yard pass with 15 seconds left that sealed the victory for UTSA. It helped preserve an undefeated Conference USA record, which they kept for the rest of the season. They finished ranked No. 23 in the AP Top 25 poll

While the Roadrunners won, they didn’t cover despite being 10-point favorites. They enter the Conference USA Championship favored once again, this time by 8.5 points. 

If North Texas is going to win on Friday, it has to get its run game going. It's 22nd in the country in rushing, averaging 204.2 yards a game. Its game against UTSA represented a low point, however, mustering just 22 yards on 21 carries. 

Mean Green coach Seth Littrell prides his program on a strong run game and knows it has to be there against UTSA to have any chance to win. 

“They are stout upfront and are really good on defense,” Littrell told reporters on Tuesday. “They have a great scheme, their players are experienced, and they make plays. You’re going to have to go out there and make routine plays to beat them.”

Two running backs that might not be available for the game are Oscar Adaway III and Ayo Adeyi, both being listed as questionable. Adeyi leads the team with 690 yards and Adaway has 583. 

Fortunately, North Texas has three other running backs who have 100 or more yards on the season. 

UTSA will be relying on quarterback Frank Harris, who threw for 27 of 39 for 238 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in the last meeting between these schools. 

If North Texas can overcome the defensive schemes UTSA throws at it to stop the run, the Mean Green will come out of this with an upset. It is always tough to beat an opponent twice in a season, and I don’t see it happening on Friday. 

My best bet: North Texas moneyline (+274 at Pinnacle)

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North Texas vs UTSA spread analysis

UTSA couldn’t cover the spread the first time these two played and I don’t believe they'll cover on Friday, either. The Roadrunners played North Texas tight and UTSA escaped with a four-point victory on a last-second touchdown. The line for Friday is set at 8.5.

The Roadrunners were successful at keeping the Mean Green’s run game stymied. Four running backs managed only 32 yards on 17 carries. Quarterback Austin Aune brought the stat down when he had four carries for -10 yards, which included two sacks. 

One running back who didn’t play in that game was Isaiah Johnson. The sophomore has become a bigger part of the run game, especially with Adaway and Adeyl hurt. In the last two games, he has averaged 5.5 yards a carry and has a touchdown. 

Coach Littrell did not say if Adaway and Adeyi will play on Friday. If one or both come back, North Texas will have a strong cache of rushers. 

UTSA is 68th in run defense, allowing an average of 149.5 yards per game. It will need another performance as it did in Week 8. 

I think, however, this is going to be another see-saw game that will come down to the end. If North Texas doesn’t win, I don’t see it losing by more than a touchdown.

North Texas vs UTSA Over/Under analysis

The total for the first game closed at 72.5 and the two didn’t come close, scoring a combined 58 points. 

For this game, oddsmakers set the total at 65.5 points but it quickly went up to 68.5 with the Over and Under each getting -110. 

Since this is for the conference championship, I like the Under, though the trends are all pointing to the Over. 

Unlike the regular season, though, I think this game will have both teams focusing on defense. UTSA obviously has to stop North Texas’ rushing attack and the Mean Green are going to have to contend with the Roadrunners' lethal offense, which leads Conference USA, averaging 479 yards per game. 

UTSA is second in passing in the conference, piling up 305.7 yards per game. North Texas is ninth in the conference in pass defense, allowing an average of 265.7 yards per game. 

The Roadrunners are first in points per game, averaging 37.9, which is also good for 13th nationally. The Mean Green average 34.5, which is third in the conference and 25th nationally. 

Still, UTSA is 5-2 on the Under in its last seven games, all of which were conference contests. North Texas is 6-2 in its last eight games on grass. 

The Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings and 4-0 in the last four in San Antonio. I will hope for a defensive battle that again comes up short on the total.

North Texas vs UTSA betting trend to know

The Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in San Antonio. Find more NCAA betting trends for North Texas vs. UTSA.

North Texas vs UTSA game info

Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Date: Friday, December 2, 2022
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET

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North Texas vs UTSA weather

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