The top of the American Athletic Conference goes head-to-head in Friday night’s championship showdown, with the North Texas Mean Green traveling to face the Tulane Green Wave.
And the stakes couldn’t be higher — beyond the conference crown, the winner is positioned to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Our North Texas vs. Tulane prediction and college football picks expect the Mean Green’s offense to be too much for the Green Wave to handle on Friday, December 5.
North Texas vs Tulane predictions for the AAC Championship
Who will win the AAC Championship?
Even with rain in the forecast, the North Texas Mean Green and their powerhouse offense have the balance to handle all the conditions.
On top of a passing attack that ranks sixth in college football at 325.7 yards per game, they keep teams off balance behind freshman phenom Caleb Hawkins, who ran for 1,216 yards and 23 touchdowns.
This will be the fourth straight year they’ll be competing for the AAC crown, and with the stakes this high, look for them to come out on top.
North Texas vs Tulane best bet: North Texas -2.5 (-110)
North Texas is absolutely blazing, ripping off six wins in a row and scoring at least 52 points in five of those.
Freshman QB Drew Mestemaker powered the Mean Green, throwing for 3,835 yards and 29 touchdowns. The emergence of fellow freshman Hawkins makes this offense electric.
Over the final six weeks of the season, Hawkins ran for 100+ yards four times, including three games of 185 or better, and punched in 16 majors in the final four weeks, with no fewer than three TDs in each game.
But the Tulane Green Wave are no slouches, as they won seven of their final eight regular-season contests and will be playing in front of their home crowd – a place they’ve gone 6-0 on the year.
The Green Wave’s defense is strong, and the prospect of rain in New Orleans on Friday night might help slow down this North Texas offense.
Consider that the Mean Green have only faced one Top-5 scoring defense in the American this year, and it resulted in their only loss, a 63-36 thumping at the hands of South Florida.
The Green Wave will be their second, a team that ranked fourth in scoring, allowing just 22.8 points per game. They held four conference foes to under 20 points this season.
Offensively, dual-threat QB Jake Retzlaff threw for 14 touchdowns and ran for 14, as Tulane floated around the Top 10 in most American Conference categories.
In the end, I don’t think it will be enough for the win, but it should slow down this blistering Mean Green offense and keep things close enough.
Still, the Mean Green are 6-0-0 against the spread in the last six, and that trend should continue.
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North Texas vs Tulane same-game parlay
Hawkins is on a roll, and he’s getting plus-money odds to punch in at least two against Tulane. Its run defense is stout, but not a brick wall, allowing 13 rushing scores on the year.
Retzlaff has almost exclusively lived in the pocket over the final three weeks, rushing for a total of five yards, but Tulane's game plan must be based on ball control and exploiting a North Texas run defense ranking last in the AAC, and allowing over 200 yards per game.
North Texas vs Tulane SGP
- North Texas -2.5
- Caleb Hawkins 2+ touchdowns
- Jake Retzlaff Over 33.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Picking your spots
Wyatt Young has 100+ receiving yards in five of his final six games, and has topped his 103.5 receiving line four times.
While Mestemaker will get Young his 100 yards, it’s iffy on the high 317.5 passing yards line. He’s had some massive passing days, but he’s also gone sub-300 three times during this win streak.
North Texas vs Tulane SGP
- North Texas -2.5
- Caleb Hawkins 2+ touchdowns
- Jake Retzlaff Over 33.5 rushing yards
- Wyatt Young Over 103.5 receiving yards
- Drew Mestemaker Under 317.5 passing yards
North Texas vs Tulane game predictions
North Texas vs Tulane spread prediction
Tulane will hold North Texas' offense in check more than most, but it won't be enough to eke out a win or a cover on the small spread.
North Texas vs Tulane Over/Under prediction
North Texas will be facing the best defense it's seen in the AAC this year, one that has had success stopping the run. If the conditions get to the worst and rain soaks the play, that will put a damper on that elite Mean Green passing game.
That doesn't mean North Texas won't put up points - it's too potent not too - but even a few stalled drives or weather-related instances could blow up this fairly high total.
North Texas vs Tulane odds
- Spread: North Texas -2.5 (-110) | Tulane +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: North Texas -136 | Tulane +116
- Over/Under: Over 66.5 (-115) | Under 66.5 (-105)
North Texas vs Tulane trend to know
The Mean Green have cashed the Under eight times in the last nine games. Find more CFB betting trends for North Texas vs Tulane. Find more college football betting trends for North Texas vs Tulane.
How to watch North Texas vs Tulane
| Location | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA |
| Date | Friday, December 5, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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North Texas vs Tulane weather
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