A fresh week is in front of us as we look to back a pair of players and fade a pitcher on today's MLB slate.
Here are my three favorite MLB player props for Monday, Aug. 10.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Jameson Taillon |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -113 |
 Sonny Gray |
Under 2.5 earned runs | -166 |
 Francisco Alvarez |
Over 0.5 hits+runs+RBI | -168 |
Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 earned runs (-113)
I find it hard to pass up backing the Boston Red Sox here when they are this hot, especially when this matchup only adds fuel to the flame. Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Jameson Taillon has posted a 7.78 ERA, 6.65 xERA and 1.73 WHIP while allowing a 45% hard-hit rate and 16.13% barrel rate over his last five starts.
On top of Taillon's recent struggles, he owns the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box's current-season dataset from today's slate. Taillon also carries poor matchup ratings in wOBA, ISO, and hard contact, while drawing four elite-rated Red Sox bats and another with a strong rating.
If you have been living under a rock for the last month and a half, the Red Sox have been on fire, posting a 120 wRC+, .348 wOBA and .790 OPS over their last 21 games.
I find it tough to pass up backing the Red Sox here. I would take this prop down to -120, or see if the Red Sox first five team total is available at a better price.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, NESN
Sonny Gray Under 2.5 earned runs (-166)
Sticking with that game, Sonny Gray is in another great spot to add to his 2026 resume, as he draws one of the most lifeless offenses in baseball. The Blue Jays own a 79 wRC+, .282 wOBA, and .106 ISO while producing just a 4% barrel rate over their last 21 games.
Not to mention, Toronto has zero hitters with an elite or strong rating on Batters-Box's current-season dataset, while Gray owns the second-highest pitcher rating. Gray also sports strong matchup ratings in wOBA, ISO, and ground-ball rate.
Using the default setting that goes back the last three seasons, Gray has some strong trends. In 22 strong ratings, the right-hander has stayed Under this prop 63.64% of the time with fewer than two earned runs 59% of the time. On top of that, he has allowed fewer than six hits 68.18% of the time and fewer than five 54.55% of the time.
The price is juicy but reasonable, given how underwhelming the Blue Jays have been this season. I would take this down to -170 at the most, or pivot to his Under 5.5 hits if the price gets too out of hand.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, NESN
Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 hits+runs+RBI (-168)
If you are not in the juice-paying business, take New York Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez to get a hit at roughly -135, or look toward his alt 1.5 HRR prop. Regardless, getting this prop at that price is a steal given the number of ways Alvarez can cash it.
Alvarez has an elite rating on Batters-Box while covering over 90% of Bryce Elder's pitch mix. Through 35 elite ratings over the last three seasons, the 24-year-old has gone over this prop 57.14% of the time. He has also gone over this prop in six of his last 10 elite ratings.
The young catcher has been tearing apart right-handed pitching. Over the last 60 right-handers he has faced, Alvarez owns a .306 BA, .433 OBP, .612 SLG, and .306 ISO, while generating a 47% hard-hit rate and 23.5% barrel rate.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Braves starter has allowed a 47% hard-hit rate, 12.1% barrel rate, and 2.25 HR/9 with a 5.32 xERA against the last 60 right-handed hitters he has faced. Those hitters own a .317 xBA, .554 xSLG, and .371 xwOBA.
I would take this prop down to -170 at the most, or pivot Alvarez to get a hit or go Over 1.5 HRR.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVsn, SNY
- Prop picks: 373-738, -21.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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