Behind the dominant Logan Henderson, the Milwaukee Brewers are a -108 moneyline road favorite tonight at Petco Park against the San Diego Padres.
With Casey Mize coming off a shaky San Diego debut, my Brewers vs. Padres predictions are eyeing the visitors to give him trouble while providing Henderson with enough run support.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Monday, August 10.
Who will win Brewers vs Padres tonight: Brewers (-116)
Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Logan Henderson has been in great form, posting a 1.85 xERA across his last two starts while limiting opponents to a 34.6% hard-hit rate.
The road profile stands out even more. Henderson owns a 1.95 FIP away from American Family Field, compared to a 4.13 mark at home.
Casey Mize is tougher to handicap after changing teams, but his San Diego Padres debut was ugly, as he allowed eight earned runs. Before that blowup, he did own a 3.33 xERA over his previous three outings.
Still, Mize now faces one of baseball’s best lineups, and Milwaukee owns a 102 wRC+ over the last week. The Brewers have the edge offensively and on the hill.
I’ll play this pick up to -130.
COVERS INTEL: Milwaukee has been far more effective against right-handed pitching, posting a 109 wRC+ compared to a 93 mark vs. lefties. That strengthens the matchup against Mize and gives the Brewers another offensive edge.
Brewers vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 runs (-126)
This total sits at 7.5, and I'm leaning to the Under despite both offenses entering in respectable form. The splits are less intimidating, with San Diego posting a 94 wRC+ at home and Milwaukee carrying a 98 wRC+ on the road.
Henderson is dealing, while both bullpens have been reliable lately. The Brewers' relief corps owns a 2.56 FIP over the last week while limiting homers, and the Padres pen has a 2.71 xERA.
Mize’s volatility is the main concern, but the lineup splits and bullpen form point toward a tighter game.
I’ll play this pick up to -140.
Brewers vs Padres home run prediction: Jackson Chourio (+474)
Jackson Chourio has four homers in his last seven games with a mind-boggling 35.3% barrel rate.
Nearly half of his contact during that span has been in the air, and he also owns a 50% HR/FB rate over the last week. Mize was hit hard in his Padres debut, and San Diego’s bullpen has a 41.7% fly-ball rate over its last 26.2 innings.
The matchup may not be perfect, but Chourio’s current barrel form gives him a clear path at this price. He is squaring up almost everything lately.
I’ll play this pick down to +400.
- ML/RL bets: 46-56, -16.38 units
- Over/Under bets: 56-43, +6.55 units
Brewers vs Padres weather
Weather at Petco Park looks mild and clean tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from 74 degrees to around 71 by midnight ET. Winds are light around 5–6 mph, and rain chances are basically nonexistent. The cooler late-night air should keep conditions fairly neutral, with no major weather boost for offense.
Brewers vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Brewers -108 | Padres +104
- Run line: Brewers -1.5 (+163) | Padres +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+117) | Under 7.5 (-122)
Brewers vs Padres trend
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.55 Units / 27% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Padres.
How to watch Brewers vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Monday, August 10, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Brewers.TV, Padres.TV |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Logan Henderson (6-1, 2.70 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Casey Mize (4-7, 3.40 ERA) |
Brewers vs Padres latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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