Let's kick off the new week on a high note!
Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for tonight's slate.
Before we dive in, be sure to check out all of our MLB picks on Monday, Aug. 10!
MLB moneyline picks for August 10
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Red Soxvs  Blue Jays |
-147 |
 Metsvs  Braves |
+133 |
 Oriolesvs  Twins |
-108 |
 Philliesvs  Cardinals |
+108 |
 Rangersvs  Angels |
-106 |
 Rockiesvs  Diamondbacks |
+182 |
 Brewersvs  Padres |
-111 |
 Raysvs  Athletics |
+150 |
 Astrosvs  Giants |
+141 |
 Royalsvs  Dodgers |
+245 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of August 10.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 10
Red Sox vs Blue Jays: Red Sox (-147)
Red Sox win probability: 60%
Death. Taxes. I will always fade Jameson Taillon.
The newly acquired Blue Jays hurler has posted a 7.78 ERA, 6.65 xERA, and 1.73 WHIP over his last five starts. In that span, opposing bats have generated a 45% hard-hit rate and 16.13% barrel rate.
This does not feel like a spot where the Red Sox cool off. If anything, it feels more like adding fuel to an already burning flame. Plus, Sonny Gray draws the least exciting offense in baseball.
Red Sox or nothing.
Mets vs Braves: Mets (+133)
Mets win probability: 43%
The Mets feel a little dangerous here, with Christian Scott holding a 2.18 xERA and 1.10 WHIP over his last five starts. Meanwhile, Bryce Elder has allowed opposing hitters to generate a 45% hard-hit rate and 11.25% barrel rate over his last five starts.
The New York offense has been stellar as of late, posting a 149 wRC+, .379 wOBA, and .875 OPS over its last six games. The Braves, on the other hand, have managed just a 102 wRC+ during that stretch, along with a 4.6% walk rate and 26% strikeout rate.
Orioles vs Twins: Orioles (-108)
Orioles win probability: 52%
There is no way I am fading Trevor Rogers in this spot. He has been lights out over his last five starts, while Dean Kremer owns a 9.00 ERA over his last three.
The Twins offense has gone cold, while the Orioles are starting to heat up. At -108, I think we are getting a great price to back an offense that is on a complete tear, especially with a lefty on the mound who has been owning opposing hitters.
Phillies vs Cardinals: Cardinals (+108)
Cardinals win probability: 48%
Phillies right-hander Andrew Painter's recent numbers have scared me off backing Philadelphia on the road here. The starter owns a 5.21 xERA and 1.50 WHIP over his last three starts. Cardinals starter Hunter Dobbins, meanwhile, carries a 2.23 xERA over his last three.
With both offenses heating up, I want to back the arm who's shown better form.
Go Cardinals.
Rangers vs Angels: Rangers (-106)
Rangers win probability: 52%
Angels left-hander Reid Detmers has been struggling in his recent starts, posting a 5.11 xERA over his last three outings. During that stretch, opposing hitters are making 53% hard contact and an 18.75% barrel rate. Rangers lefty MacKenzie Gore, meanwhile, has been shoving over his last five starts, owning a 3.01 xERA while limiting hard contact and barrels.
The Angels are notorious for struggling against southpaws, especially when it comes to striking out. I want no part of backing that frozen offense.
Give me the Rangers.
Rockies vs Diamondbacks: Rockies (+182)
Rockies win probability: 36%
I am not paying juice for the Diamondbacks to secure the win here against a Rockies team that plays better on the road. Plus, the Colorado offense has been on a tear over the last week, posting a 113 wRC+, .351 wOBA, and .813 OPS.
Gabriel Hughes has the tools to hold down the Diamondbacks' bats, and at +182, the Rockies are a fun play.
Brewers vs Padres: Brewers (-111)
Brewers win probability: 52%
First of all, when was the last time we got such a great price on the Brewers to win? It has been a minute.
Sure, the Padres offense has been on a tear, but Casey Mize has been brutal. Over his last five starts, he owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.40 WHIP while allowing a 44% hard-hit rate. On the other side, Logan Henderson has posted a 2.67 ERA, 2.25 xERA and 0.78 WHIP.
I like the overall better team here, especially at this price.
Give me the Brewers.
Rays vs Athletics: Athletics (+150)
Athletics win probability: 40%
Jacob Lopez has been lights-out over his last five starts, while Freddy Peralta still owns a 7.77 ERA over that same span. The Rays starter also carries a 7.11 ERA on the road this season.
Despite the Athletics' cold bats and the Rays' sustained dominance, this is a spot for the A's to come out on top.
Astros vs Giants: Giants (+141)
Giants win probability: 42%
Minimal thoughts here, aside from Hayden Wesneski not performing well on the road this season, while Blade Tidwell has some very solid underlying metrics.
The Giants are a steal at +141, especially with both offenses being a bit cold over the last week.
Royals vs Dodgers: Royals (+245)
Royals win probability: 29%
Strictly from a moneyline standpoint, I am not laying $2.51 on the ice-cold Dodgers.
Despite snapping their losing streak, the Dodgers followed that up with a loss on Sunday afternoon. Tarik Skubal takes the mound this evening against Noah Cameron, who has been strong for the Royals, sporting a .285 xERA over his last five outings.
With how poorly both offenses have been and Cameron's success on the rubber lately, this could be a fun sweat at +245.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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