The Ole Miss Rebels hope to get revenge for their upset loss at home last season when they visit the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field on Saturday.
Both teams enter with wins on Saturday, but there are real concerns about the Kentucky offense. The Rebels will be a much tougher opponent, but they are very pleased with the play of quarterback Austin Simmons.
Let’s dive into our early Mississippi vs. Kentucky predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 6.
Mississippi vs Kentucky predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Mississippi vs Kentucky spread pick: Mississippi -10.5 (-105)
It took a bit of time, but Austin Simmons showed why he was tabbed as the heir to Jaxson Dart last season. He threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns against Georgia State, overcoming two early interceptions and a fumble.
But the Mississippi defense raised some eyebrows, holding the Panthers to just 69 yards passing. Georgia State completed seven passes after halftime, but gained only nine yards. While they picked up only one sack, the Rebels were pressuring the backfield all day, led by Zxavian Harris.
Where the Panthers did find success was on the ground, rushing for 195 yards without accounting for sacks and averaging 5.7 ypc. And those didn’t all come in garbage time. Georgia State rushed for 4.4 yards a pop in the first half, and Kentucky will hope to replicate that with a strong ground game of its own.
The Wildcats showed against Toledo that their defense will be strong again this season, not allowing an offensive point through the first three quarters. But the Rockets eventually got things going in the passing game, and cut the lead to 24-16 with two minutes to go before failing to recover the onside kick.
Kentucky ran the ball very effectively, but Zach Calzada did little to impress. He had a few nice deep balls—one of which was a near 40-yard gain that was wiped away by an iffy call—but completed just 10 of his 23 passes for 85 yards.
Ole Miss has found itself in tight games with Kentucky the past few years, and the Wildcats will keep things much closer than the Panthers did. But the lack of a reliable passing game will lead to stalled drives, allowing the Rebels to eventually pull away and win by two touchdowns.
Early Mississippi vs Kentucky total pick: Under 52.5 (-114)
Mark Stoops built his success in Lexington upon two foundations. The first was a hard-nosed defense that got after the quarterback with elite pass rushers like Josh Allen-Hines and Bud Dupree, while making you put together long drives to score. And that’s what the Wildcats did last year in Oxford, registering four sacks and numerous pressures on Jaxson Dart.
The other was grinding the game down to a halt, utilizing a strong ground game to limit the other team’s offensive possessions. It’s how Kentucky beat Toledo, and was what it attempted to do in the win last season over the Rebels by running the ball 47 times—albeit failing to reach 100 yards as a team.
Kentucky’s defense was key to the win on Saturday over the Rockets, and it will be a tougher test for Simmons. It’s also looking to be a raucous environment at Kroger Field, something this young quarterback won’t be accustomed to.
Simmons didn’t look comfortable early in the game against Georgia State, and while he eventually settled in, he was playing at home. While I expect he will find some success before the game is over, it may take a while — and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lane Kiffin rely more on Lacy and Diggs early to help him settle in.
On the other side, Calzada showed me little on Saturday that makes me think he’s going to lead Kentucky to many scoring drives. The Wildcats will need that ground game to come through, and a shortened game means fewer points. I’m taking the Under on this one as long as the total sits above 49.5 points.
Mississippi vs Kentucky odds
- Mississippi vs. Kentucky spread: Kentucky +9.5
- Mississippi vs. Kentucky moneyline: Mississippi -350, Kentucky +275
- Mississippi vs. Kentucky Over/Under: 52.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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