You’ve always got to pregame before a New Year’s Eve party. That’s exactly what we’re doing with the Citrus Bowl, as a pair of bluebloods in Texas and Michigan will face off in Orlando before Wednesday night’s College Football Playoff matchup between Miami and Ohio State.
Both of these prestigious programs are dealing with big changes heading into this bowl game, but my Michigan vs. Texas predictions and college football picks explain why the Wolverines are being undervalued in this epic December 31 matchup.
Michigan vs Texas predictions for the Citrus Bowl
Who will win the Citrus Bowl?
I’m going with the Wolverines to pull off the upset in the Citrus Bowl.
The Sherrone Moore firing sent shockwaves through the college football world, but it appears the team has rallied behind interim coach Biff Poggi as the team only had three opt-outs before jumping on the plane to Orlando.
Texas is dealing with a massive amount of opt-outs, particularly on the defensive side of the football.
Michigan vs Texas best bet: Michigan +7.5 (-113)
The Citrus Bowl is probably not where the Texas Longhorns or Michigan Wolverines wanted to end up, but both teams had their own set of issues that held them back this season.
For Texas, it was quite simply the offense. Arch Manning did not develop the way many had hoped, and the Longhorns' offense finished the regular season ranked 92nd in offensive success rate — a stunning number considering the amount of talent on this Texas roster.
For Michigan, it was surprisingly its pass defense. You knew it was going to be a problem early on when the Wolverines got torched by the New Mexico pass game to start the season. It continued all year, with Michigan ranking 93rd in defensive success rate on dropbacks.
With the Longhorns' passing game deficiencies, it’ll be difficult for Texas to take advantage of that.
Meanwhile, the strength of this Texas team has been its defense. Full of future NFL talent, the Longhorns ranked 15th in opponent EPA per play. However, between the NFL Draft and transfer portal, the Longhorns will be without seven starters from that defense.
And now they’ll have to deal with a reinvigorated Bryce Underwood. The freshman QB had a season full of ups and downs, but finished the year with 2,229 passing yards and 323 rushing yards. He sounds excited about the Kyle Whittingham hire, giving the fanbase hope he’ll stick around in Ann Arbor.
And he’s not the only one. Only three Michigan players have opted out heading into this bowl game.
The coaching change may be the best thing for this Michigan program. The Wolverines appear focused, while Texas is still trying to figure things out and will be missing a lot of key players. Michigan getting more than a touchdown looks like a late Christmas gift.
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Michigan vs Texas same-game parlay
Since I’m betting Michigan to cover and even outright win this game, I expect the Wolverines to score their fair share of points in this one. That means we need to rely on Texas to do its part to send this one Over the total.
Now, Manning has his problems. To be frank, a lot of them. But Steve Sarkisian has done what he can to make his QB successful by giving him quick reads to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers.
Manning’s been able to put up big passing numbers as a result of a lot of YAC, particularly against team that struggle to defend the pass, like Michigan.
He threw for 328 yards or more in recent games against Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State. If the Texas skill position players can break out for a couple of big plays, this game should go Over.
Michigan vs Texas SGP
- Michigan +7.5
- Over 48.5
Michigan vs Texas odds
- Spread: Michigan +7.5 | Texas -7.5
- Moneyline: Michigan +245 | Texas -300
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
Michigan vs Texas trend to know
Texas has only covered the spread in four of its last 14 games for -7.00 Units and a -45% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Michigan vs Texas.
How to watch Michigan vs Texas
| Location | Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL |
| Date | Wednesday, December 31, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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