The Ohio State Buckeyes look to begin their march towards a College Football Playoff crown when they face the Miami Hurricanes at the Cotton Bowl on New Years Eve.
The Buckeyes are fresh after the bye and multiple weeks off to get some of their biggest weapons fully healthy. Justin Sayin leads an NFL-laden roster against a Hurricanes team that escaped its first-round game with Texas A&M despite scoring just 10 points.
Here are my Miami vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for the Cotton Bowl.
Miami vs Ohio State predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Early Miami vs Ohio State spread pick: Ohio State -9.5
As long as Carson Beck is the quarterback of the Miami Hurricanes, I’d take the Ohio State Buckeyes laying up to two touchdowns in this game.
I mean, we all just watched that game against Texas A&M, right? The one where he threw for 103 yards and produced nothing of note until the final minutes? The game where the Canes converted just three of their 12 third-down opportunities against the best third-down defense in the country?
The Buckeyes are second in that metric. Their defense also ranks first in EPA/dropback, third in points allowed per quality drive, and seventh in quality drive rate against. That's bad news for Miami, seeing as the Canes managed just 10 points against an A&M defense ranked 83rd in PPQD.
The reason I’m backing the Buckeyes to put up points is their elite receiving corps. Ohio State ranks in the Top 30 in explosive pass rate.
Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate will cause problems for a Miami secondary that gave up 91 pass plays of 10+ yards and 15 completions of 30+ yards despite playing a fairly friendly schedule.
One other important factor is tackling. The Canes rank 132nd in missed tackle rate. If you don’t take down Ohio State’s talented skill players at first contact, you’re risking giving up home run plays.
Beck will turn the ball over once or twice, and the Buckeyes will capitalize in a comfortable victory.
Early Miami vs Ohio State total pick: Under 41.5
I absolutely love the Under in this game. While the Buckeyes should win comfortably, I don’t think they’re going to light up the scoreboard enough to breach the 40-point mark.
The Hurricanes have an excellent pass rush, which will give Julian Sayin some issues. They're also more than strong enough to hold their own in the trenches, with a strong stuff rate and one of the best havoc ratings in college football.
However, Miami might be facing a situation where it doesn't score a touchdown. The Canes have one of the lowest explosive run rates in college football, and the Buckeyes rank fifth in EPA/rush and eighth in rushing success. I don’t see Mark Fletcher Jr. rushing for anywhere near the 172 yards he picked up against the Aggies.
This again means the bulk of the production falls on the shoulders of Beck. Are you willing to bank on him being the guy who gets the best of a Buckeye defense that ranks first in EPA/dropback, ninth in early down EPA/play, and fourth in average distance to gain on third downs?
I’ve seen enough of Beck to know he’s not that guy; not in this situation. He’s enjoyed the lowest pressure rate of any quarterback in college football this season.
The Buckeyes will make him uncomfortable, the Canes will struggle to put together any sort of quality drives, and they’ll contribute very little towards this total.
Miami vs Ohio State odds
- Miami vs. Ohio State spread: Ohio State -9.5
- Miami vs. Ohio State moneyline: Miami +270, Ohio State -340
- Miami vs. Ohio State Over/Under: 41.5
How to watch Miami vs Ohio State
- Miami vs. Ohio State matchup
- Date: Wednesday, December 31, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Arlington, TX
- Venue: AT&T Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
