Whether you’re counting down to midnight in Times Square or keeping it low-key with family and friends, there’s no shortage of great ways to spend New Year’s Eve.
But my Miami vs. Ohio State predictions make the case that the best way to welcome the New Year is with playoff football — specifically, the first CFP Quarterfinal showdown, as the Ohio State Buckeyes face the Miami Hurricanes in the Cotton Bowl Classic.
This Miami defense was dominant against Texas A&M, and my college football picks for Wednesday, December 31 break down why that defense will be key against a Buckeyes team that's been dormant since a loss to Indiana in the Big Ten title game.
Miami vs Ohio State predictions for the Cotton Bowl CFP Quarterfinal
Who will win the Cotton Bowl?
Ohio State will win, but it will be much closer than this 9.5-point spread indicates. Miami has a strong defense and loads of talent at the skill positions.
The Buckeyes are just better, and playmakers like Jeremiah Smith will be the difference at the end of the day. I’m sure Mario Cristobal will screw something up, too.
Miami vs Ohio State best bet: Miami +9.5 (-110)
The Miami Hurricanes enter this matchup with an 11-2 record and are coming off a defensively dominant 10-3 win over Texas A&M at Kyle Field in Round 1, where the Canes held the Aggies to just 4.3 yards per play. That defense will be the key to Miami's playoff hopes against the Ohio State Buckeyes in this Cotton Bowl Classic.
Ohio State is insanely talented on both sides of the ball with the likes of Jeremiah Smith and Arvell Reese, but this team has rarely been tested this season, particularly against strong defensive teams.
You can make the case that the only two elite defenses the Buckeyes faced were Texas and Indiana. Those games ended in a 14-7 Buckeyes win and a loss in the Big Ten title game; both one-score games.
Miami would fall into the elite category. Led by edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., the Canes have one of the best defensive fronts in the country, ranking seventh in opponent EPA per play and ninth in defensive success rate.
On offense, Miami needs Carson Beck to not turn over the ball, and he’s been playing some great football lately, throwing for 1,228 yards with 12 touchdowns and one interception over his last five games, with a 78% completion percentage and 10.8 yards per attempt.
He’s also proven to be able to manage close games with the first-round win at Kyle Field and the season-opening win over Notre Dame, both very strong defensive teams.
It feels like Miami is more likely to win this game outright than Ohio State is to win it by double digits. The fear of what Mario Cristobal can do and the chance of a Beck meltdown is keeping me away from the moneyline as a best bet, but this spread should be closer to -6.5 or -7.
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Miami vs Ohio State same-game parlay
This total is too low. It’s an overreaction to the recent games both of these teams have played. Miami’s 10-3 win in the first round and Ohio State’s 13-10 loss in the Big Ten title game.
While this is a matchup of two elite defenses, the offenses aren’t too shabby either. The Hurricanes rank 14th in EPA per play and 10th in offensive success rate, while the Buckeyes are fourth and first in those respective categories. A 24-21 or 27-20 game feels much more likely than another one of those low-scoring slugfests.
And if Miami is going to keep the Cotton Bowl close and send it Over the total, Beck is going to have to keep locking in on freshman Malachi Toney.
This game is full of wideout talent, and Toney is no exception. He’s playing his best football of the season right now, hauling in 35 catches for 348 yards and five touchdowns over his last four games (with at least one TD in every game).
Miami vs Ohio State SGP
- Miami +9.5
- Over 41.5
- Malachi Toney anytime touchdown
NYE Ball Drop TD SGP: Fireworks!
Let's stick with the scoring theme for a massive payout. Carnell Tate comes up big in Ohio State's big games, and Mark Fletcher and C.J. Donaldson are the leading running back scorers for both teams.
Miami vs Ohio State SGP
- Malachi Toney anytime touchdown
- Carnell Tate anytime touchdown
- Mark Fletcher Jr. anytime touchdown
- CJ Donaldson anytime touchdown
Miami vs Ohio State game predictions
Miami vs Ohio State spread prediction
This spread should not be approaching double digits. Miami has an elite defense, and the Ohio State offense has stalled when facing defensive teams of this caliber this season.
Miami vs Ohio State Over/Under prediction
I like the Over in the Cotton Bowl. This number is too low, thanks to some recent results from both teams. While this is a matchup of elite defensive teams, the offenses should be able to do enough to send the game above this low number.
Miami vs Ohio State odds
- Spread: Miami +9.5 | Ohio State -9.5
- Moneyline: Miami +280 | Ohio State -350
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 | Under 41.5
Miami vs Ohio State trend to know
Miami has gone Over its team total in four of its last five games for +2.75 inits and a 45% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Miami vs Ohio State.
How to watch Miami vs Ohio State
| Location | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, December 31, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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