Two undefeated Big 12 programs highlight an excellent final weekend of September in college football as the Kansas Jayhawks and Texas Longhorns collide.
Last season, Kansas started 5-0 before collapsing in the depths of the Big 12 conference. Can the Jayhawks cover the big spread — or even pull off the upset — in the college football odds on the road?
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Kansas vs. Texas at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday, September 30.
Kansas vs Texas best odds
Kansas vs Texas picks and predictions
The Kansas Jayhawks find themselves a perfect 4-0 to start the season and are ranked 24th in the nation. However, we have seen this before with Kansas. They started 5-0 and were ranked 19th before losing six of their final seven games just last season.
That included a 55-14 loss at home to the Texas Longhorns in a game where they trailed 31-0 at halftime. It's worth noting that Kansas was favored in each of their first four games this season, so it's not really a surprise to see the Jayhawks enter this game undefeated. However, they only managed to cover the spread in two of those four contests.
The Longhorns are also 4-0 and ranked third in the country thanks to a road win over Alabama in Week 2. They won that game by 10 points and have not won by less than 21 in any of their other three games, including an easy road cover at Baylor last weekend.
Kansas has a very good offense with quarterback Jalon Daniels at the helm, but it has not faced a defense nearly as good as this Texas squad. The Longhorns rank 14th in points allowed, 24th in yards allowed, and 18th in third-down percentage allowed. They have recorded 13 sacks on the season.
The Longhorns bring back Quinn Ewers at quarterback after he went for 107 yards passing and a touchdown in short work in this matchup last season. Bijan Robinson was the star going for 243 yards on the ground and four touchdowns. And even though Robinson is no longer at Texas, Jonathon Brooks is back and was able to run for 108 yards and two touchdowns in reserve for Robinson in that game.
Ewers is playing at his best and is currently one of the Heisman Trophy odds favorites with 1,033 yards in the air and nine touchdowns with no interceptions. He also has three touchdowns on the ground. Texas should be able to have its way with Kansas and this spread seems a bit light just because of the Jayhawks’ record.
My best bet: Texas -16.5 (-110 DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Kansas vs Texas same-game parlay
Jonathon Brooks anytime TD
Quinn Ewers Under 0.5 interceptions
Brooks Over 91.5 rushing yards
I expect Texas to be able to put a lot of points on the board. This will give us a lot of nice options to add to a same-game parlay with the Longhorns spread.
The Kansas defense has not allowed a ton of yards, but it has allowed several touchdowns to not-so-great offenses. The Jayhawks have allowed seven rushing touchdowns and at least one in every game. Let’s add a Brooks anytime touchdown to our parlay to capitalize.
Ewers has not thrown an interception all season and I do not expect him to throw his first in this game. We will add that along with Over 91.5 rushing yards for Brooks. He ran for 108 on 11 carries last season against Kansas and has gone over 100 yards in each of his last two games this season.
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Kansas vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis
The Longhorns have one of the best red-zone defenses in all of college football. They have only allowed one touchdown and four field goals in 10 attempts. So, even if Kansas is able to move the ball with Daniels, it will not be easy to finish drives with points on the board.
The total for this game will likely come down to whether Kansas can hold up its end of the bargain. I would expect Texas to finish around 40-45 points max. The Jayhawks have yet to score more than 38 points this season.
While the Jayhawks have scored over 30 every single game, that will not carry over against this Longhorns defense. They were shut out at home last season in the first half and I would not be surprised to see a repeat performance. I would lean towards the Under here.
Kansas vs Texas betting trend to know
Texas has only hit the Game Total Over in one of their last six games at home. Find more college football betting trends for Kansas vs Texas.
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Kansas vs Texas game info
|Location:||DKR-Texas Stadium, Austin, TX|
|Date:||Saturday, September 30, 2023|
|Kickoff:||3:30 p.m. ET|
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