Iowa vs Kentucky Prediction: Music City Bowl Odds and Picks

One year after playing against each other in the Citrus Bowl, Iowa and Kentucky will square off yet again in today's Music City Bowl in Nashville.

However, viewers of last year’s game may not recognize many of the players in this year’s version. Heck, people who watched these two teams this year won’t either.

Both teams have had numerous key players opt-out of the game, including projected first-round pick Will Levis for the Wildcats. In addition, Iowa will be without its starting (and backup) quarterback for the game.

However, fans of defensive football should be in for a treat as two of the Top 25 defenses in the nation do battle. Will that lead to an extremely low-scoring affair, as the bowl game odds seem to expect?

My free college football picks seem to think so... especially in the early portion of this Iowa vs. Kentucky matchup on New Year's Eve.

Iowa vs Kentucky best odds

Iowa vs Kentucky picks and predictions

Let’s pretend for a minute that both teams were coming into this game during the regular season, fully healthy and with all their weapons. We would be talking about a woeful Spencer Petras facing Kentucky’s solid defense and Kentucky’s offensive line trying to buy time for Levis against Iowa’s terrific pass defense, which ranks 25th in yards allowed per pass and 11th in yards per game.

Picture it for a moment. What do you see? I see Kentucky’s anemic offense struggling as much as it has against good teams all season, with Levis getting sacked 4+ times and the offense trying to rely on the legs of Chris Rodriguez to churn out yards. Then I see Kentucky’s special teams — especially the kicking unit — botching scoring opportunities.

On the other side, I see Iowa’s horrible offense (ranked 100th or worse in nearly every important category) having problems against a Kentucky unit that allows a bit of rushing yards but has been terrific on the back end.

Imagine that slog-fest. Can you see it?

Now picture it without Levis or CRod for Kentucky, and Iowa sans Petras AND backup quarterback Alex Padilla. The remainder of Iowa’s offense is mostly intact — for whatever that’s worth — but will be without some key backups as well.

That’s not to say there aren’t absences on the defensive side. Iowa’s secondary will be missing two players who have entered the transfer portal, plus safety Kaevon Merriweather is preparing for the draft. Kentucky will also be without star cornerback Carrington Valentine.

But when I look at two offenses, already struggling to score points and put together successful drives, I look at their weapons. Iowa simply doesn’t have many, and Kentucky’s weapons will have a backup quarterback trying to get them the ball — oh, and did I mention the Wildcats fired their offensive coordinator before this game? So yes, someone new is also calling plays.

I see two coaches who like to limit mistakes, rely on their defenses to make plays, and will likely come out cautious with a run-first mentality in this game. But my fear is that as the game goes along, someone — maybe multiple someones — will make a crucial mistake on offense that allows for a very short field, or even a defensive score, and somehow pushes the total into the Over realm despite the poor offenses.

That’s why my favorite for this game is to take the first quarter Under. Kentucky runs one of the slowest-paced offenses in college football, and it’s routine for their successful drives to take upwards of half a quarter. Both teams also rank 96th or lower in third-down conversions, and it’s hard for me to see either team putting a touchdown up early.

Stay away from the lowest point total of any bowl game this season, and look to get out with a betting win after just 15 minutes.

My best bet: First quarter under 6.5 points (-112 at DraftKings)

Iowa vs Kentucky spread analysis

This is such a difficult game to analyze in terms of who will win, given the fact both teams will start quarterbacks who have not thrown a single pass for their teams all season: Kentucky will roll with true freshman Destin Wade, while Joey Labas will lead the Hawkeyes.

So again, it comes down to the defenses and the run game. Kentucky’s been susceptible this season to allowing yards on the ground, but the worst-ranked run offense in the Big Ten may not be the team to exploit that weakness.

As for the Hawkeye defense, Iowa’s got a solid sack rate this year, and it allows the second-fewest yards per attempt through the air. Even if Kentucky is able to get WR Barion Brown involved in the screen game, he’s likely to get swarmed.

For me, Iowa gets the edge for two reasons.

1) It ranks 30th in the nation in field goal conversion, whereas Kentucky barely makes two of every three attempts.

2) The Hawkeyes don’t turn the ball over — an area that has hurt the Wildcats much of the season. Iowa also forces nearly two per game, and one turnover deep in its own territory could be all it takes to doom Kentucky to defeat.

That’s likely why Iowa is favored in this game by just under a field goal. That said, Kentucky has won each of its last four bowl games under Mark Stoops — including last year's matchup.

Iowa vs Kentucky Over/Under analysis

This game features the lowest total — by far — of any bowl game this year, opening at 32... and it’s gone down since then, to 31.5.

But is it too low?

That’s hard to say, given that Iowa’s last seven non-conference games have gone Under, as have Kentucky’s last six games played on grass.

One thing that will help the Under is how likely we are to see both teams commit to the run game. That should shorten proceedings, especially with Kentucky in possession.

Iowa scored more than 14 points in five of its 10 games against Power Five teams this year, but that included Nebraska, Purdue, and Rutgers. When they faced good defenses, like Michigan and Ohio State, they scored a total of just 24 points.

The Hawkeyes managed just 13 points in a late-season win over Minnesota win and Iowa mustered just six points in a very low-scoring affair against Illinois. In fact, six of its games this year failed to reach the 30-point mark.

The Wildcats were very poor against Tennessee — a team that had allowed plenty of big plays coming into that game — and against Georgia, scoring just six points in both games. While they weren’t involved in as many low-scoring games as Iowa, they weren’t often facing defenses of the Hawkeyes’ caliber, either.

In-play microbetting trends for Iowa vs Kentucky

The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):

• DraftKings Sportsbook
• bet365 Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook

Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:

Iowa

Offensive score Yes: 7/25 (28%)
Offensive score No: 18/25 (72%)

Punts: 16/25 (64%)
TDs: 4/25 (16%)
FG attempts: 3/25 (12%)
TOs: 2/25 (8%)

Iowa had two drives that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

Kentucky

Offensive score Yes: 7/28 (25%)
Offensive score No: 21/28 (75%)

Punts: 14/28 (50%)
TDs: 3/28 (10.7%)
FG attempts: 6/28 (21.4%)
TOs: 5/28 (17.8%)

Iowa vs Kentucky betting trend to know

The Under has cashed in each of Iowa’s last seven non-conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Iowa vs. Kentucky.

Iowa vs Kentucky game info

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