The Indiana Hoosiers were in the midst of arguably their best college football season ever. Big wins, almost upsetting Ohio State. Then QB Michael Penix Jr. tore his ACL. It is a massive blow to absorb heading into this weekend’s matchup with the Wisconsin Badgers.
Thanks to a significant COVID outbreak, the Badgers’ season, on the other hand, was pretty much derailed even before its loss to Northwestern.
Let’s check out our best college football free picks and predictions for No. 12 Indiana at Wisconsin, with kickoff set for Saturday, Dec. 5 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Camp Randall Stadium.
Indiana Hoosiers at Wisconsin Badgers Betting Preview
Weather
It will be a chilly afternoon in Camp Randall Stadium. The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures starting around the freezing mark at kick-off and dropping during the game. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Indiana: Ty Wise LB (Questionable), Caleb Jones OL (Questionable), Cam Wilson WR (Questionable), Alfred Bryant DL (Questionable), Rashawn Williams WR (Questionable), Da'Shuan Brown WR (Questionable), Ahrod Lloyd RB (Questionable), Michael Penix Jr. QB (Out), Shamar Jones DL (Out), San Daugstrup TE (Out).
Wisconsin: Kendric Pryor WR (Probable), Chase Wolf QB (Questionable), Josh Seltzner OL (Questionable), Mike Maskaluna LB (Questionable), Rachad Wildgoose CB (Questionable), Jack Dunn WR (Questionable), Danny Davis III WR (Questionable), Titus Toler S (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
Wisconsin is 5-0 ATS in its last five matchups against Indiana. Find more NCAA betting trends for Indiana vs. Wisconsin.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The season-ending injury to Penix Jr. is a heartbreaking loss for Indiana. The Hoosiers head into Saturday’s matchup with a 5-1 SU (6-0 ATS) record, and actually have a shot to qualify for the Big Ten Championship game (if Ohio State is unable to get the required amount of games in), but this is a huge blow.
Penix had thrown for 1,645 yards with 14 touchdowns compared to just four interceptions. But more importantly, he was the heart and soul of this Hoosiers team. Now, he hands the reins of the offense over to Jack Tuttle. The redshirt sophomore is a four-star recruit who transferred from Utah, but has all of five FBS pass attempts and will get thrown into the fire against an excellent Wisconsin defense.
Yes, it’s hard to properly evaluate the Badgers due to them only playing three games, but something we always know about the Badgers is that’ll always trot a solid defense out on the field. Although it’s a small sample size, the numbers are good once again. Wisconsin ranks first in total defense and is limiting opponents to a paltry 11.7 points per game.
But the COVID issues have clearly affected Wisconsin. Just look at the Badgers' loss to Northwestern last time out. Despite outgaining the Wildcats, the Badgers looked out of sorts on offense. QB Graham Mertz looked like a freshman, throwing three interceptions.
You can bet Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst will put an emphasis on getting back to the run in this one after putting up just 136 rushing yards against Northwestern. While the Indiana defense has been one of the big reasons for the Hoosiers’ great season, Ohio State and Penn State were able to put up big numbers in the rushing game.
Both of these defenses are good, but Wisconsin has the edge, and in the end, the loss of Penix Jr. will be too much for Indiana to overcome. It's time to fade the Hoosiers.
PREDICTION: Wisconsin -14 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
A quick look at the teams and total, and it’s quite obvious that this will be a defensive battle. But at 45, is the total a touch too low?
In the Badgers' two games against bad defenses, they put up 94 points. In their lone game against a good defense, they put up seven. So, it is reasonable to assume they’ll fall somewhere in between for this Big Ten battle. Indiana has a good but not great defense, and it's likely the Hoosiers will have trouble sustaining drives with a quarterback making his first start against the fierce Badgers D, which should give Wisconsin plenty of opportunity on offense.
One place where Indiana really excels on defense is in the turnover department. If the Hoosiers can force Mertz into some bad throws once again, giving Tuttle some short fields to work with could really help out. This one should sneak Over.
PREDICTION: Over 45 (-110)
First Quarter Spread Pick
Indiana is a really well-coached team with Tom Allen steering the ship, and that should keep the Hoosiers in this game for a bit. But even with great coaching, it may take a quarterback making his first college start a bit to settle in, particularly against a defense this good. Additionally, Wisconsin has outscored its opponents 28-7 in the first quarter of its three games this season.
PREDICTION: Wisconsin -5.5 (-103)
Indiana vs Wisconsin Betting Card
- Wisconsin -14 (-110)
- Over 45 (-110)
- Wisconsin -5.5 First Quarter Spread (-103)
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