Florida vs Georgia Odds, Picks and Predictions: Gators Won't Make it Easy on Bulldogs

Georgia may be undefeated and a huge favorite for this SEC clash with Florida, however, the Gators have the pieces needed to keep this game much closer than the 22.5-point spread suggests. We break it all down in our Florida vs. Georgia picks below.

Chris Hatfield - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
Oct 27, 2022 • 11:35 ET • 4 min read
Anthony Richardson Florida Gators SEC college football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It's a renewal of the most extensive cocktail party in the world when Florida and Georgia meet.

If we've learned anything this far into the season, it's that this isn't last year's Georgia team. Yes, they are undefeated. Yes, in most polls, they are still the No. 1 team in the country, but they've had close calls against teams that last year's team wouldn't have had.

In back-to-back weeks, they looked sloppy against Missouri and Kent State. The Missouri game, in particular, looked to have the result in doubt for quite a while. However, since that contest, they've drummed back-to-back conference opponents in Auburn and Vanderbilt. 

First-year head coach Billy Napier has had an up-and-down start for the Gators. They opened up the season with what looked like a season-defining win against Utah but have looked lacklustre since. They've won two of their last three but are coming off a double-digit defeat to LSU over the weekend.

Can Florida put up a fight in this one? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Georgia vs. Florida.

Florida vs Georgia best odds

Florida vs Georgia picks and predictions

This is the moment for the Florida Gators, who have played the high-end opponents on their schedule tough, even in some bad spots. Tennessee, a few weeks ago, comes to mind. They lost to the Vols by five in Knoxville and became the second team to play them within a touchdown this season.

In addition, the Utah game was one of their most significant and, still, one of the season's best performances. So on paper, this is a spot where the Gators would overperform.

Georgia has played well these past two weeks, but they still have some fundamental questions for me. I can't throw the image of the Bulldogs being brought to the brink against lowly Missouri away. I'm also not sold that Georgia is fine after the last two weeks. It beat a rebuilding Vanderbilt team and an Auburn team that may not have its coach much longer.

I need more than that to believe this is a Top-3 caliber team — the Bulldogs are justly carrying that weight because of what they did last season. They've yet to show it on the field this year, but things are about to get very real for them as they enter the meat of their schedule. To put it another way, this is gut-check time for Georgia if they want to prove they can defend its National Championship.

The matchup in this game comes down to the same thing that so many matchups involving Georgia do — it's about what is happening along the trenches. Florida will want to follow the blueprint that Missouri used in attempts to spring the upset.

The Bulldogs have more talent than the Tigers, but the talent gap between Florida and Missouri is closer than the one between Georgia and Florida. Missouri did three things exceptionally well in that game that kept it in contact. Let's break them down to assess if Florida can do the same. 

The most notable and most important to this matchup is what they did in the open field. Missouri ran for 4.0 open field yards per rush throughout the game. This is where we start because Florida has the perfect player to replicate that in quarterback Anthony Richardson.

As we've seen throughout the season, Richardson can be dynamic or a disaster, but Missouri being able to do this to Georgia should give Florida some hope. The Gators have the second most open field yards per rush outside of Alabama in the SEC.

The second thing Missouri did very well was winning the battle of average starting position. Georgia got the ball on the 25-yard line on average, and Missouri got it past the 30. Of course, this feels like a random metric, but it's worth mentioning that Florida has owned it this season. In every game, this season – even the losses – the Gators have had a better average starting field position than their opponent.

The last and most interesting is that Missouri had an incredible defensive performance. They slowed down early Georgia runs and forced a negative rushing success rate in two corners. This put the Bulldogs in obvious passing situations, and they defended them well once they were in them.

This is really where the game will be decided for Florida. Georgia isn't an explosive passing offense — anyone that's watched college football knows this. They make their hay on 10 to 15-yard passes, ranking second in the SEC.

Florida gives up many of those passes; they rank seventh in the SEC in passing plays of 10 to 20 yards allowed, but can the Gators defend them well if they get them in those obvious situations? Can they even get them in those obvious situations? I believe they can. Their defensive line has had some issues throughout the season, but over the last four weeks has posted the third-highest havoc rating in the SEC.

I'll be honest. I want to pick Florida to pull the outright upset here. However, I can't quite get there as its defensive line will eventually give in. Even though they've improved throughout the season, the Gators' front seven has still posted one of the worst stuff rates in the SEC.

Georgia has feasted on these teams, and eventually, that will happen here. However, Anthony Richardson and dynamic runners in space will keep this close. Missouri could control the game in large portions against Georgia because it could do that on offense.

However, Florida can do it better than the Tigers can. Expect this game to be in question in the fourth quarter. 

My best bet: Florida +14.5 alternate spread (+210 at FanDuel)

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Florida vs Georgia spread analysis

This one opened up with a spread of even 21 at most books. It immediately saw some money in Georgia and has remained steady. According to Covers' matchup page, though, we've started to see a bit of a buyback on Florida.

The Gators are collecting around 57% of the money at the current number as of publication. Bettors were burnt on the Bulldogs early in the season but have now covered in back-to-back games. Even though I'm fading some of the history here, Georgia has illustrated some ATS dominance in this matchup. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games overall.

As noted above, Florida does a reasonably good job of keeping this one close. This has been a team that's played up to its competition this season. Its performance in Knoxville a few weeks ago is evidence of that, but its track record as their head coach is even more. 

Florida vs Georgia Over/Under analysis

Even though Florida keeping it reasonably close is my best bet, a low-scoring game is a close second. This total has jumped a full touchdown since it opened, and I disagree with that line movement. 

Both of these teams are going to want to run the ball. Florida's strength and its best matchup are getting runners in open space to let them make plays. Georgia's offense is pretty balanced, but they're getting a crack at a defense that has one of the worst stuff rates in the SEC.

I expect head coach Kirby Smart to be very aware of that and for him to want to pound that defensive line early and often to wear it down. Two teams running the ball with a high frequency means the clock is running, and the clock running is always your best friend as an Under bettor. 

I'll be grabbing the Under in this one. It has served me well when betting on Georgia games this season, as anyone who reads those articles can attest to. I see no reason to stop backing it now.

Throw out the matchups altogether and what are you left with? A matchup of two teams that have seen seven of their last 10 games go Under. I see it going to eight of the previous 11. 

Florida vs Georgia betting trend to know

The Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for Florida vs. Georgia.

Florida vs Georgia game info

Location: TIAA Bank Field
Date: Saturday, October 29, 2022
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET

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