The Florida State Seminoles have just been marching along since their statement win over Alabama to open the season, but they'll get a sneaky test when they open ACC play against the Virginia Cavaliers.
My early Florida State vs. Virginia predictions and college football picks break down how the Cavaliers can keep things close on Friday, September 26.
Florida State vs Virginia predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Florida State vs Virginia spread pick: Virginia +7
Florida State stunned the college football world with an upset win over Alabama to open the season.
Quarterback Thomas Castellanos looked dangerous, and the defense was impressive. However, since then, they’ve only faced cupcake matchups against FCS Texas A&M-Commerce and Kent State.
Meanwhile, Virginia has settled in following a disappointing season-opening loss to NC State, a game in which they led 28-14 at halftime. QB Chandler Morris has found a home in Charlottesville and is coming off throwing for 380 yards and four touchdowns against Stanford.
It’s the Cavs’ balance that makes them especially dangerous. J’Mari Taylor looks like one of the best backs in the ACC, averaging 6.2 yards per carry this season.
FSU's defense looked solid vs. Alabama, but it ranks a middling 52nd in EPA per dropback this season. If Morris can make some plays early, it should open things up for Virginia on the ground.
With a matchup looming against the No. 2-ranked Miami Hurricanes in Week 6, the Seminoles could be caught looking past an improving Virginia team. I’d lean toward taking the touchdown with the home dogs.
Early Florida State vs Virginia total pick: Under 59.5
Florida State did a great job containing Alabama’s running game in the season opener, holding the Crimson Tide to 87 yards on 29 carries. But as noted, Virginia will have the chance to open things up if Morris can be effective.
Then, there is the Seminoles' offense. Florida State has the third-highest run-play percentage in the country, excluding service academies — and they’re running the ball even more than Air Force.
Virginia’s defense has been solid, if unspectacular, against the run, ranking 36th in opponent EPA/rush and 49th in defensive success rate vs. the rush.
This total has been elevated because both teams have beaten up on bad defenses. This will be a more competitive game than casual college football fans would expect.
Mix in an underrated Virginia defense and Florida State’s commitment to running the ball, and the O/U is too high.
Florida State vs Virginia odds
- Florida State vs. Virginia spread: Virginia +7
- Florida State vs. Virginia moneyline: Florida State -255, Virginia +205
- Florida State vs. Virginia Over/Under: 59.5
How to watch Florida State vs Virginia
- Florida State vs. Virginia matchup
- Date: Friday, September 26, 2025, 7:00 p.m. ET
- City: Charlottesville
- Venue: Scott Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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