One of the most entertaining games on Saturday will take place very early, with Notre Dame and Arkansas giving us a battle of two inept defenses.
The Irish have scored 96 points in their last two games but have allowed 71, and it could be more of the same against a Razorbacks unit that is putting up points in a hurry.
Here are my early Notre Dame vs. Arkansas predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 27.
Notre Dame vs Arkansas predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Notre Dame vs Arkansas spread pick: Arkansas +5.5
Texas A&M defeated Notre Dame by hitting big plays and limiting turnovers. If Arkansas can clean up its turnover issues, then it could not only cover but defeat the Irish straight up.
The Razorbacks turned the ball over three times in the loss at Memphis this weekend, including two critical ones in the fourth quarter. Both came inside the 25-yard line, and the latter cost them a chance to at least kick the game-winning field goal inside the final minute.
Taylen Green and the offense will have opportunities to put up points against a Notre Dame defense that is leakier than a wicker canoe. As we’ll discuss more in the total section, the Irish are giving up big plays like they’re handing out Halloween candy. And in this economy, that’s saying something.
That’s not to say the Razorbacks are playing well on defense, but neither did Texas A&M. And while the Aggies are certainly better defensively than the Hogs, the Arkansas offense is likely the best one Notre Dame has seen this season outside of Miami.
Arkansas is playing at home, with an explosive offense that can put up points in a hurry. The Irish are running the ball well, but the passing game has shown inconsistencies. Not only do I believe that the Razorbacks will cover, but don’t be surprised if you see them in my Underdog picks later this week.
Early Notre Dame vs Arkansas total pick: Over 64.5
Since opening at 60.5 points early Sunday morning, bettors have moved the total up by four points. And for me, that’s still not enough to take the Under.
Defensively, Notre Dame ranks near the bottom nationally in pass success rate, net EPA/drive, and net EPA/play. Two major reasons for this are the explosive plays being allowed, and the lack of havoc being caused.
Those factors allowed Purdue to connect on 11 “big plays” on Saturday, including seven passes that picked up at least 19 yards. And that actually lowered Notre Dame’s average of double-digit plays allowed per game, with 47 given up through three games.
Only Texas Tech has more plays of 10+ yards this season than the Hogs, and the 32 plays of 20+ yards are more than all but four teams. The Razorbacks can strike at any time, either on the ground or through the air.
But Arkansas is giving up quite a few explosive plays as well. Opponents are averaging nearly 15 plays of at least 10 yards per game, many of which are coming on the ground. The Razorbacks rank 107th in EPA/rush and 89th in early down EPA/play.
Two of Notre Dame’s three games have seen at least 80 points, and the lowest total so far for Arkansas was the 63 points we saw in the Memphis loss. Green’s dual-threat ability will create nightmares for the Irish, and Arkansas’ up-tempo style will help facilitate a shootout.
Until the total gets closer to the 70-point mark, I’m not even considering anything but the Over.
Notre Dame vs Arkansas odds
- Notre Dame vs. Arkansas spread: Arkansas +6
- Notre Dame vs. Arkansas moneyline: Notre Dame -220, Arkansas +181
- Notre Dame vs. Arkansas Over/Under: 64.5
How to watch Notre Dame vs Arkansas
- Notre Dame vs. Arkansas matchup
- Date: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Fayetteville
- Venue: Razorback Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
