If no one is as good or as bad as their most recent game, then the Illinois Fighting Illini warrant some deference coming off their 63-10 embarrassment at Indiana.
But how much deference?
As good as the Hoosiers’ passing offense is, it is nothing compared to what the USC Trojans have been showing lately.
Lincoln Riley may finally be delivering the offense long promised to Hollywood, and my USC vs. Illinois predictions simply see too much of a mismatch when the Illini are on defense.
Find out more in my college football picks for Saturday, September 27.
USC vs Illinois predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early USC vs Illinois spread pick: USC -6.5
As the season goes along, it would become tiresome to keep hearing references back to Illinois’s win at Duke in Week 2, a 45-19 win that was statistically rather flawed.
The Blue Devils should be long criticized for their five turnovers, but they proved that the Illini offensive line has worries.
Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti noticed, too.
Curt Cignetti, on why Indiana was so effective in pressuring Illinois: "Put the Duke game on," referring to Illinois' struggles to protect against Duke. "The difference in that game was Duke turned it over."
— Adam Rittenberg (@ESPNRittenberg) September 21, 2025
While USC has not faced anyone with a well-respected offensive line or passing game, it warrants noting the Trojans’ defense ranks No. 1 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against, per cfb-graphs.com.
But that is only Worry No. 2 for Illinois.
Worry No. 1 is avoiding another defensive performance like last week’s. Indiana threw for 267 yards on just 23 pass attempts.
Fernando Mendoza completed 21 of 23 passes and averaged 11.6 yards per pass attempt, which should be the kind of thing that keeps the Illini coaches up all week long. The Hoosiers’ offense carries just the 29th-best dropback EPA in the country, adding 0.012 points on average per dropback.
For quick context, this is simply a way to quantify a play’s impact given game state, pondering things like down, distance, field position, score, time, etc. USC ranks No. 2 in EPA per dropback, adding 0.036 points on average per dropback.
Not to oversimplify it, but one can argue the Trojans’ passing offense is measurably three times better than the Hoosiers’. Illinois cannot return enough defensive backs — certainly not without Xavier Scott — to make up for that worry.
Early USC vs Illinois total pick: Under 59.5
Illinois head coach Bret Bielema has only so many solutions at his disposal. A coach who made his career on offensive line play and found success at Illinois because of a strong secondary now lacks both of those traits.
Right now is not the time to try to ascertain how these shortcomings came to be. It is time to wonder what Bielema will do as a result.
Most likely, especially when facing a USC offense that could blow this game wide open as Indiana did, if not to the same dramatic extent, Bielema will try to shorten the game. The Illini do not run the ball all that much — ranking No. 42 in the country in pass rate over expected, throwing the ball 3.5% more often than an average team would in a given game state — but they arguably should.
Illinois succeeds on 47% of its rush attempts, compared to just 39.5% of its dropbacks. The two are adding nearly the same expected points, 0.008 per rush compared to 0.010 per dropback, so leaning into that rushing success rate can be justified.
Furthermore, the Trojans’ defense is far more susceptible against the run.
Betting this Under is betting on Bielema to change course for the time being in an attempt to plug some holes on the figurative boat without leaving the water.
USC vs Illinois odds
- USC vs. Illinois spread: Illinois +6.5
- USC vs. Illinois moneyline: USC -240, Illinois +195
- USC vs. Illinois Over/Under: 59.5
How to watch USC vs Illinois
- USC vs. Illinois matchup
- Date: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Champaign
- Venue: Memorial Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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