Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs Iowa State Picks

The Fiesta Bowl showcases two teams that aren’t supposed to be here—but for different reasons. Oregon exceeded college football betting expectations by defending its Pac-12 Championship after filling in for Washington, which was unable to play because of COVID-19. 

The Cyclones are playing in a New Year’s bowl for the first time in school history. It’s a credit to head coach Matt Campbell, but also speaks to the program’s history of losing.

It’s a compelling matchup in the desert, so let’s take a look at our best college football picks and predictions for No. 25 Oregon at No. 12 Iowa State. Kickoff is slated for Saturday, January 2 at 4:00 ET.

Fiesta Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview

Weather

This game will be played indoors at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. If the roof is open, expect a high of 63 degrees and sunny skies. There is no chance of rain. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key Injuries

Oregon: Adrian Jackson LB (ques), Patrick Herbert TE (out), Daewood Davis WR (out), Cam McCormick TE (out)
Iowa State: Arnold Azuna DB (ques), Jakes Remsburg OL (ques)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting Trend to Know

Iowa State is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon vs. Iowa State.

Against the Spread (ATS) Pick

It’s hard to think of a luckier team than the Oregon Ducks. Yes, give them full credit for pulling off the 31-24 upset over USC in the Pac-12 Championship game, breaking a two-game losing streak. The Ducks were outplayed on the stat sheet versus the Trojans, but they forced three turnovers, and that turned out to be the difference. Quarterback Tyler Shough struggled most of the game and was replaced late by Boston College transfer Anthony Brown, who tossed two touchdowns.

Iowa State should be proud to be in this position, but the Cyclones must also be disappointed after losing 27-21 in a very winnable game against Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship game. The Cyclones were driving late when quarterback Brock Purdy threw an ill-advised desperation bomb on third down that was intercepted. The senior signal-caller can’t afford such mistakes against an opportunistic Ducks defense, but running back Breece Hall should help. He’s rushed for 1,436 yards and 19 touchdowns this season.

The Ducks are a nice story, but I’m not sold by Oregon beating a USC team that was lucky to be undefeated in the first place. The Cyclones have never experienced a victory on a stage this big, and I’m trusting Campbell to have his team motivated enough to cover the small number.

PREDICTION: Iowa State -4.5 (-110)

Over/Under Pick

The Total in this game hasn’t budged, but I think this number is too high. Iowa State was able to contain an explosive Oklahoma offense, and the Cyclones have the 10th best rushing defense in the country. They’ll force the Ducks to be one-dimensional and make this a low-scoring game. The Under is 4-0 in Iowa State’s last four contests.

PREDICTION: Under 57.5 (-110)

Prop Pick

Shough will get the start for Oregon, and head coach Mario Cristobal says he wants his quarterback’s confidence to return. In other words, there’s a possibility that we could see Brown again if Shough is ineffective. Having quarterback issues in your biggest game of the year will spell trouble for the lucky Ducks.

PREDICTION: Oregon team total Under 26.5 (-111)

Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs Iowa State Betting Card

• Iowa State -4.5 (-110)
• Under 57.5 (-110)
• Oregon team total Under 26.5 (-111)

Where Can I Bet on College Football Bowl Games?

You can bet on college football bowl game odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NCAA football point spreads, Over/Under totals, derivative bets and even prop plays as well. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on college football odds in your area.

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