Week 1 of the college football season had several major moments, with none bigger than Lane Kiffin's debut at LSU. The Tigers' blowout win over Clemson led to LSU's championship chances jumping 5% to 10%, according to the latest college football national championship odds.
LSU wasn't the only college football odds mover across the best prediction market apps, with the teams that met in last year's championship, Miami and Indiana, both climbing the board. But the biggest impact on college football picks could come in Week 2, as Ohio State and Texas square off.
- Key takeaways
- Ohio State: Despite a Week 1 win, Ohio State slipped from the co-favorite with Notre Dame at 13% down to 12% ahead of its rematch with Texas - the Longhorns are a 1.5-point favorite at home
- LSU: LSU's 5% jump was by far the biggest following Week 1, after Lane Kiffin's program beat Clemson by 41 points behind an offensive explosion led by new starting QB Sam Leavitt
- Miami: Miami's Friday night dominance against Stanford in Week 1, a 45-6 win, helped the Hurricanes move up the board; it also led to new starting QB Darian Mensah becoming the Heisman Trophy odds favorite
CFP National Championship odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Team |  Probabillity |
|---|---|
 Notre Dame |
13% |
 Ohio State |
12% |
 Texas |
11% |
 LSU |
11% |
 Indiana |
10% |
 Miami |
10% |
 Oregon |
10% |
 Georgia |
8% |
 Oklahoma |
4% |
 Texas Tech |
4% |
 Alabama |
3% |
 Ole Miss |
3% |
 USC |
3% |
 Texas A&M |
2% |
 Florida |
2% |
 Tennessee |
2% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Notre Dame (13%)
Now the sole favorite, Notre Dame has been atop the College Football National Championship odds for months. The Fighting Irish's place at No. 1 on the board is well deserved, with Marcus Freeman's team leading the nation in returning production (72%) and having a Heisman Trophy odds favorite, CJ Carr, behind center.
Notre Dame also has a major advantage on its path to the College Football Playoff since it's an independent with a weaker schedule than the rest of the Power 4. Also working in Notre Dame's advantage is the rule change that guarantees the Irish an automatic playoff spot if they finish ranked in the Top 12 of the CFP committee's final rankings.
Heading into Week 2, Notre Dame's price is more than reasonable, and I'd consider buying them at it. The only four teams I'd consider taking to win it all at this point are Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State, and Georgia.
CFP National Championship predictions
| Prediction | Odds | Pick date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon |
10% | May 27 | 0.5 |
Dan Lanning's Oregon Ducks are going to break through. It's only a matter of time.
Dante Moore passed up the NFL Draft to return for his senior season, and he'll have Evan Stewart (missed all of last season with a knee injury) and 2025 No. 1 wide receiver recruit Dakorien Moore to throw to.
Trips to USC and Ohio State are the only scary matchups on the schedule, and they'll have chances to boost their resume with home games against Michigan and Washington in the final three weeks of the season.
I project this as an 11-1 season, with that lone loss coming at Ohio State on November 7, but that record and a potential Big Ten title game appearance could be enough for a first-round bye in the CFP.
Pick made by Chris Gregory.
| Prediction | Odds | Pick date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon Ducks |
11% | Aug. 26 | 1 |
After predicting every single FBS game ahead of the college football season, Oregon was one of just a handful of Power 4 teams I projected to have a chance at 11+ regular-season wins. That's because they're 11th nationally in returning production (66%) with one of the top QBs in the country.
Dante Moore, who's the best Heisman value on the board among high-profile QBs, was one of only three P4 QBs to put up an adjusted completion percentage of at least 80% (Min. 300 dropbacks), and the only one of those three to have a big-time throw rate better than 6%. He also has one of the deepest pass-catching rooms in the country (Jamari Johnson, Evan Stewart, Dakorien Moore, Jeremiah McClellan, Iverson Hooks).
Dan Lanning's defense is loaded again, too. The Ducks return their entire starting defensive line, led by preseason All-American A'Mauri Washington.
Oregon should be priced the same as Notre Dame and Ohio State, and so I'll happily buy them at a slight discount.
Pick made by Rob Paul.
Team to watch
Texas Tech (4%)
Among the teams with a probability below 8%, Texas Tech is by far the most interesting. The Red Raiders are the most talented team in the Big 12, and billionaire booster Cody Campbell once again helped fund a top transfer portal class.
While the Brendan Sorsby saga hung over Texas Tech for months, they don't need him to make a run to the College Football Playoff. Will Hammond showed plenty of promise off the bench last year, and he's healthy after last year's torn ACL. Joey Maguire also added former Florida State QB Thomas Castellanos as insurance behind Hammond.
But the reason Tech is the team to watch is because of its defense. It reloaded in the front seven with major portal additions like Mateen Ibirogba, Adam Trick, and Austin Romaine. It also returns stars Ben Roberts and Brice Pollock.
With a schedule that should lead to an 11+ win regular season, I think Tech's price will rise rapidly.
Recent College Football National Championship winners
| Year | Winner | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Indiana |
+10000 |
| 2024 | Ohio State |
+325 |
| 2023 |  Michigan |
+800 |
| 2022 | Georgia |
+350 |
| 2021 | Georgia |
+600 |
| 2020 | Alabama |
+300 |
| 2019 | LSU |
+2500 |
| 2018 |  Clemson |
+400 |
| 2017 | Alabama |
+250 |
| 2016 | Clemson |
+700 |
| 2015 | Alabama |
+700 |
College Football National Championship odds via Sports Odds History.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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College Football National Championship Odds FAQs
Notre Dame and Ohio State are co-favorites, according to the College Football National Championship odds. Both the Fighting Irish and Buckeyes have a 13% probability of winning the CFP National Championship.
The College Football National Championship is on Monday, Jan. 25, 2027, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
The College Football National Championship is at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. It will be played on Monday, Jan. 25, 2027.
Indiana won its first College Football National Championship last year. The Hoosiers defeated Miami, 27-21, to complete a 16-0 season.
The College Football National Championship will be on ABC/ESPN on Monday, Jan. 27, 2027. The other College Football Playoff games leading up to it will be on ABC/ESPN and TNT.
