Let’s be honest, when the group chat starts firing off “LOCK?” texts, most of us don’t want a 40-minute film breakdown, we want a clean pick, a quick reason, and a gut-check against the odds.
So we did the most 2025 thing possible: we took the latest lines from FanDuel and asked ChatGPT to make straight-up moneyline predictions for all four games. No ATS picks. No totals picks. Just “who wins” and why.
Check out the algorithm's NCAAF picks ahead of this week's highly anticipated games.
CFP Quarterfinals predictions
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Miami vs  Ohio State |
-355 |
 Oregon vs  Texas Tech |
-128 |
 Alabama vs  Indiana |
-260 |
 Mississippi vs  Georgia |
-245 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Miami vs Ohio State
Moneyline prediction: Ohio State (-355)
Odds: Ohio State -9.5 (-110); total 41.5 (O -110 / U -110)
Ohio State is priced like the cleaner, safer “advance in the bracket” side: a -355 moneyline paired with a -9.5 spread signals that the market expects the Buckeyes to control this game more often than not. For a straight-up bet, the logic is simple: when a favorite is laying close to double digits, the underdog usually needs turnover help, splash plays, or a game script that gets weird early to flip the result.
Miami can absolutely make things uncomfortable (especially if it can shorten the game and force long drives), but the low-ish 41.5 total also hints at fewer total possessions, meaning it’s harder for the dog to “out-score variance” without a couple of high-leverage moments. If you’re only playing the moneyline, Ohio State is the pick.
Oregon vs Texas Tech
Moneyline prediction: Oregon (-128)
Odds: Oregon -2.5 (-110); total 51.5 (O -110 / U -110)
This is the tightest moneyline of the bunch, and it reads like a classic “coin flip… with a lean.” Oregon at -128 implies a modest edge, and the -2.5 spread supports that, basically saying Oregon wins this matchup a little more often than Texas Tech, but not by a ton.
With a 51.5 total, the game environment looks more offense-friendly than the others on your slate, which can increase volatility and make underdogs more live. Still, if you’re forcing a moneyline-only choice, Oregon is the pick because it’s the side the market is shading while staying under a field goal (a common zone where small differences like red zone finishing, third downs, special teams swings decide everything). For bettors, this is the spot where shopping price matters most.
Alabama vs Indiana
Moneyline prediction: Indiana (-260)
Odds: Indiana -6.5 (-120); total 48.5 (O -104 / U -118)
Indiana is the biggest favorite on the board after Ohio State, and the pricing is pretty direct: -260 moneyline and -6.5 (-120) suggests the market is more confident in Indiana winning than in Indiana winning comfortably. That’s a key distinction for casual bettors: if you don’t want to mess with points, the moneyline aligns with the “most likely” outcome.
Alabama at +210 is the kind of number that tempts you into an upset narrative, but the odds imply Alabama is expected to win roughly one out of three-ish times, not half the time. The 48.5 total sits in a middle range, which generally means fewer “track meet” outcomes and more value on the team that can control game flow. If you’re keeping it simple: Indiana straight up.
Mississippi vs Georgia
Moneyline prediction: Georgia (-245)
Odds: Georgia -6.5 (-118); total 55.5 (O -112 / U -108)
Georgia is another solid favorite, so the market expectation is a Georgia win more often than not, but with enough openness that Mississippi is still live if the game turns into the kind of shootout it can thrive in.
And that total of 55.5, the highest on your board matters. Higher totals can widen the range of outcomes, which is typically where underdogs can hang around longer and steal one with a few explosive plays. That said, for a moneyline pick, you’re not trying to be a hero, you’re trying to be right the most often. Georgia’s price reflects a team expected to handle business a clear majority of the time. If you’re betting one team to simply win, Georgia is the pick.
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How to use these picks (without getting cute)
If you’re a casual bettor, moneylines are comfort food: no math gymnastics, no sweating a backdoor cover. But the tradeoff is price, especially when you’re laying -245 or -355.
A few practical ways bettors typically approach a slate like this:
- Singles > Parlays for favorites. A four-leg moneyline parlay looks fun, but one weird bounce nukes the ticket. If you’re taking multiple favorites, a couple of singles can be less painful long-term.
- Be intentional with plus-money dogs. If you’re going to take a shot on an underdog, do it because the number offers enough upside, not because it “feels right.”
- Shop the price when it’s close. The Oregon/Texas Tech game is the poster child for this approach. Small differences in moneyline (even 5–10 cents) can matter over time.
