While the Alabama Crimson Tide lost to the Oklahoma Sooners last week, you should still expect College Football Playoff bracket projections to keep the Tide in the top four with a first-round bye.
The logic is simple: If Alabama beats Auburn next weekend, the Tide will be in the SEC title game, and Alabama might be favored against Texas A&M in that championship game.
You should still expect the Tide to receive a first-round bye, despite their two losses. Thus, they are No. 3 in this projected College Football Playoff bracket.
College Football Playoff bracket prediction
- 5) Georgia vs. 12) North Texas
- 8) Oregon vs. 9) Oklahoma
- 6) Texas Tech vs. 11) Georgia Tech
- 7) Mississippi vs. 10) Notre Dame
- BYES: 1) Ohio State, 2) Indiana, 3) Alabama, 4) Texas A&M
CFP Bracket analysis
Alabama’s loss to Oklahoma not only benefits the Sooners, but it also boosts the Indiana Hoosiers. As the SEC seems to claw at itself — imagine if Texas A&M had indeed fallen to South Carolina — the Big Ten’s dominant duo should be entrenched atop the Playoff field.
Even if Ohio State blows out Indiana in the Big Ten title game, or vice versa, that may be seen more as a testament to the winner’s quality and not necessarily an indictment of the loser.
Behind that, give Alabama the nod over Texas A&M in the bracket, despite two losses, thanks to a presumed head-to-head win in the SEC title game.
As long as Georgia, Texas Tech, Mississippi, and Oregon avoid any losses, they should hold onto homefield in the Playoff’s first round, though three of those have stiff tests ahead of them yet. Then again, the Ducks are out to 9.5-point favorites against USC this weekend.
The biggest question in the coming rankings from the selection committee is whether Oklahoma beating Alabama was enough to vault the Sooners ahead of Notre Dame. It should be.
The Irish eight-game winning streak has been impressive, but Oklahoma now owns wins over Michigan, Tennessee, and Alabama, arguably three better wins than any victory on the Notre Dame schedule.
The Sooners should be knocking on the door of homefield in the first round. They are also knocking on the door of missing the Playoff if they lose to either Missouri or LSU in the next two weeks. Including Oklahoma in the Playoff despite that risk is a nod of trust to Sooners head coach Brent Venables and his defensive front. A defensive front as overwhelming as this raises the floor every Saturday, drastically lowering the chances of an upset loss.
Georgia Tech and North Texas round out the Playoff field as the most likely champions in the ACC and the AAC. Both are in tight positions, so this is up for change, but regardless, the No. 11 seed should go to the ACC’s champion now that it almost certainly will not be Duke, while the No. 12 seed should go to the American’s champion despite James Madison’s gripes.
Simply enough, the Dukes at 12-1 do not have as impressive a résumé — losing to Louisville and beating just about nobody of note — as any of:
- North Texas: Likely 12-1, lost to South Florida. Beat Navy and then someone of note in the American title game.
- Tulane: Likely 11-2, lost to Mississippi and UTSA. Beating Northwestern, Duke, East Carolina, Memphis, and then someone of note in the American title game.
- East Carolina: Likely 10-3, lost to NC State, BYU, and Tulane. Beat Memphis and then someone of note in the American title game.
James Madison has an argument, just not one that actually holds up when looking at the lack of quality in the Sun Belt this season.
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Latest odds to make the College Football Playoff
| Team | Conference |  |
|---|---|---|
 Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
IND. | -3500 |
 Mississippi Rebels |
SEC | -2500 |
 Texas Tech Red Raiders |
Big 12 | -2000 |
 Oregon Ducks |
Big Ten | -280 |
 Alabama Crimson Tide |
SEC | -230 |
 Oklahoma Sooners |
SEC | -170 |
 North Texas Mean Green |
AAC | -104 |
 James Madison Dukes |
Sun Belt | +156 |
 Texas Longhorns |
SEC | +160 |
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
ACC | +186 |
 Virginia Cavaliers |
ACC | +240 |
 BYU Cougars |
Big 12 | +250 |
 Utah Utes |
Big 12 | +250 |
 Miami Hurricanes |
ACC | +290 |
 SMU Mustangs |
ACC | +350 |
 USC Trojans |
Big Ten | +370 |
 Vanderbilt Commodores |
SEC | +410 |
Important dates for the College Football Playoff
| Round | Dates | Matchup(s) |
|---|---|---|
| First round | December 19-20 | No. 12 at No. 5 No. 9 at No. 8 No. 11 at No. 6 No. 10 at No. 7 |
| Quarterfinals | December 31-January 1 | No. 4 vs. winner of No. 12 vs. No. 5 No. 1 vs. winner of No. 9 vs. No. 8 No. 3 vs winner of No. 11 vs. No. 6 No. 2 vs winner of No. 10 vs No. 7 |
| Semifinal 1 | January 8 | Fiesta Bowl |
| Semifinal 2 | January 9 | Peach Bowl |
| Championship | January 19 | CFP National Championship Game |
