The Big 12 is going through a number of identity crises. It was a 10-team league for years. But the 2023 season will be the only one in which this college football conference has 14 teams as it’s the swan song for Texas and Oklahoma, who are off to the SEC following this campaign.
But the Big 12 won’t be reduced to 12 teams for long as Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah are set to join following the Pac-12 purge.
For this season, college football odds have Texas pegged as the favorite to win its first conference title since 2009. Can the Longhorns end their Big 12 tenure on a high note? The bigger question is, can anyone be this year’s TCU after the Horned Frogs' surprising run to the College Football Playoff National Championship game?
Here are my best bets plus some Heisman Trophy odds hopefuls in my 2023 Big 12 betting preview.
Odds to win the Big 12
| Team |  |
 |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Texas Longhorns |
+100 | +100 | -110 | +100 |
 Oklahoma Sooners |
+350 | +420 | +350 | +325 |
 Kansas State Wildcats |
+500 | +500 | +700 | +500 |
 Texas Tech Red Raiders |
+1,000 | +1,100 | +1,000 | +1,100 |
 TCU Horned Frogs |
+1,600 | +2,100 | +1,600 | +2,000 |
 Baylor Bears |
+1,800 | +1,900 | +1,800 | +2,000 |
 Kansas Jayhawks |
+3,500 | +3,000 | +4,000 | +4,000 |
 UCF Knights |
+3,500 | +3,000 | +2,800 | +2,500 |
 Oklahoma State Cowboys |
+4,000 | +3,000 | +2,800 | +4,000 |
 Iowa State Cyclones |
+8,000 | +6,000 | +2,500 | +5,000 |
 BYU Cougars |
+8,000 | +10,000 | +6,000 | +8,000 |
 Cincinnati Bearcats |
+10,000 | +9,500 | +6,000 | +10,000 |
 West Virginia Mountaineers |
+15,000 | +7,000 | +9,000 | +20,000 |
 Houston Cougars |
+20,000 | +12,000 | +10,000 | +20,000 |
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Big 12 betting preview 2023
Texas Longhorns season preview
- Odds to win National championship: +2,500 at FanDuel
- Season win total: 9.5 at FanDuel
Will its final year in the Big 12 finally be when Texas returns to the top of the conference? The Longhorns haven’t won a conference crown since 2009 when Mack Brown was still the man in charge. And I would make the argument that this will be their best chance since.
Oddsmakers agree as Texas is an even-money favorite to win the Big 12 this year. And despite losing Bijan Robinson to the NFL, this will likely be Steve Sarkisian’s best roster to date in Austin.
It starts with the return of quarterback Quinn Ewers. Despite having uber-prospect Arch Manning looking over his shoulder, this is Ewers’ team. Ewers was outstanding at times last season and looked like he was going to upset Alabama before leaving the game with an injury.
This year, he’ll play behind five returning starters on the offensive line, and his wide receiver corps of Xavier Worthy, Jordan Whittington, and Georgia transfer Adonai Mitchell makes this one of the best units in the country. The defense should also improve with six starters back highlighted by a strong pass rush.
The Longhorns went 8-5 last season with all five losses coming by a touchdown or less. On top of that, it feels like a down year for the conference. So, if Texas isn’t able to win the Big 12 with this roster, the transition to the SEC could be a rough one.
Oklahoma Sooner season preview
- Odds to win National championship: +7,500 at BetRivers
- Season win total: 9.5 at FanDuel
Brent Venables' first year in Norman was an unmitigated disaster. Lincoln Riley lost seven Big 12 games during his five-year tenure at Oklahoma and the Sooners lost six conference games just last year, including embarrassing blowout losses to TCU and Texas.
The most shocking part about last season was how badly Venables’ defense struggled. The Sooners gave up a whopping 30 points per game when facing FBS opponents last season and were dreadful against the pass, ranking 116th in passing yards allowed per game.
But Venables is hoping a remade roster can be the start of the turnaround in Norman. He brought in 18 transfers this year alone with a major goal being improving what was a bad front seven.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel's return should also be viewed as a positive. The senior signal caller had a solid first season at Oklahoma following a terrific career at UCF, throwing for 25 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions. And the Sooners offense hummed when he was under center, averaging 510 yards and 37 points in the 11 games Gabriel started and finished.
On top of that, outside of the annual meeting with Texas in the Red River Showdown, Oklahoma's schedule isn’t the most daunting. It arguably avoids the next three teams in the conference in Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Baylor.
Oddsmakers believe that the turnaround for Venables will at least start in 2023 as the Sooners are the second favorite to win the conference.
Kansas State Wildcats preview
- Odds to win National championship: +15,000 at BetMGM
- Season win total: 7.5 at FanDuel
With TCU making it all the way to the national championship, Texas on the rise, and Oklahoma set for a bounce back, people may overlook Kansas State. You know, the reigning Big 12 champions.
The Wildcats were able to avenge a mid-season loss to the Horned Frogs by taking the Big 12 title game in a thrilling triple-overtime matchup. But repeating as Big 12 champs won’t be easy as Kansas State will have to replace several key pieces from its title team.
The most obvious holes are being left by All-American do-it-all running back Deuce Vaughn and veteran wideout Malik Knowles. On defense, the Wildcats lost star edge rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah and basically their entire secondary.
Luckily, Will Howard returns under center. After splitting duties with Adrian Martinez for much of the first half of 2022, it quickly became clear that Howard was the superior passer and he was the guy if K-State wanted a balanced attack on offense.
Howard led K-State to wins over Oklahoma State, Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas, and TCU, throwing for 13 touchdowns compared to just one pick in those games. He will also be playing behind a monster of an offensive line that returns all five starters and could be one of the best units in the country.
This Wildcats team could have some growing pains, but Chris Klieman is one of the best coaches in the conference and always seems to get the most out of his teams. If he can do some patchwork on the defense, Howard should carry the offense and K-State will at least be a threat to defend its title.
The rest of the field
Talk about a year of transition for the Big 12. While it's the final year in the conference for Blue Bloods Texas and Oklahoma, it’s the first for BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF.
It can be tough anytime a program changes conferences. It is even tougher when you go from a Group of Five conference to the Power Five (Four next year following the disintegration of the Pac-12). And not much is expected of the Big 12’s new quartet this season, with their respective win totals sitting between 4.5 and 6.5.
Speaking of transitions, what can we expect from TCU following last season’s Cinderella run to the National Championship game? Well, the Horned Frogs have to deal with a ton of roster turnover, including starting quarterback and Heisman finalist Max Duggan, who was drafted by the Los Angeles Chargers. With Keandre Mille and Quentin Johnston also gone, this will be a whole new offense for the Horned Frogs, and a win total of 7.5 says there will be some regression in Fort Worth.
And could this year’s TCU come from the trio of Baylor, Oklahoma State, or Texas Tech? The Bears will look to bounce back after a 6-7 season, Mike Gundy’s Pokes are definitely being overlooked, and there is a lot of hype around Lubbock.
Pick to win the Big 12: Texas (+100)
Talk about not feeling comfortable with a pick. I mean, it’s Texas... as a favorite in a conference that has produced underdog champions each of the last two seasons. And I can see a team like Kansas State or even Texas Tech getting to the championship game.
But it’s hard to ignore the depth and overall talent up and down this Texas roster, particularly compared to what the rest of the conference is rocking this season. The Longhorns will be favored in all of their games outside its trip to Tuscaloosa on Sept. 9. Ewers' Longhorns — and what should be one of the better offenses in the country — will get the job done in their final season in the Big 12.
Big 12 best win total bets for 2023
Texas Tech Over 7.5 wins
The Big 12 has seen some parity over the last couple of seasons. Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and TCU have all played in the title game the last two years. Texas Tech could be the next team to make that jump.
The Red Raiders seemingly had no direction for years. But in comes Joey McGuire and Texas Tech goes 5-4 in conference play, which included wins over Texas and Oklahoma, and followed that up with a dominating bowl victory over Mississippi to end the season 8-5.
This year, I love their chances to grab that eighth win in the regular season. The Red Raiders will feature one of the most veteran rosters in the conference, returning 17 starters, including basically every key piece from last season's offense.
That includes quarterback Tyler Shough. The former Oregon quarterback showed flashes of greatness when healthy. He’ll be playing behind an offense line that returns all of its starters and will be throwing to one of the best wide receiver rooms in the country. The defense will have to replace edge Tyree Wilson who left for the NFL, but he will be the only starter on the d-line that needs to be replaced.
The schedule also does Texas Tech some favors. The Red Raiders should start the season 4-1 and don’t be surprised if Shough puts his former team on upset alert on Sept. 9. Then I have Texas Tech marked down for probable wins against BYU, Kansas, and UCF. That means snaring just one of their toss-up games vs. Baylor, Kansas State, or TCU and they go Over before the season finale against Texas.
Texas Tech is getting a lot of hype this season and I’m starting to drink the Kool-Aid. This team has the potential to be the latest Big 12 dark horse to go to the conference title game and they are a solid bet to go Over 7.5 wins this season.
Best odds: +110 at DraftKings
Oklahoma State Over 6.5 wins
Oklahoma State is going through a big transition this year. Quarterback Spencer Sanders transferred to Mississippi, and they have to replace a lot of offensive weapons. But still, this win total of 6.5 feels disrespectful to Mike Gundy.
It’s not like this is the first time he has experienced roster churn during his tenure at Oklahoma State and he has won seven or more games in 17 straight seasons. Seventeen!
Other positives are that Gundy knows how to recruit and he has brought in transfer Alan Bowman to be the new quarterback. He’ll play behind an offensive line returning four starters and the Cowboys return 13 total starters.
That’s more than enough experience to take advantage of the gift of a schedule that was handed to Oklahoma State.
The Pokes start the season vs. Central Arkansas, at Arizona State, and vs. South Alabama before opening conference play on Sept. 23 at an Iowa State team still reeling from a gambling scandal. They avoid Texas, TCU, and Baylor, which means they’ll likely need just three wins the rest of the way.
With matchups against Kansas, West Virginia, Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, and BYU, I would be stunned if Gundy and the Pokes don’t get the job done.
Best odds: -110 at FanDuel
Best Heisman Trophy bets for the Big 12
Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas (+1,300 at DraftKings)
Ewers looked like he was on the verge of something special last Sept. 10 against Alabama. He went 9-12 for 134 yards in the and the Longhorns were tied with the Crimson Tide heading into half. But then Ewers got hurt and was unable to return. Texas eventually lost 20-19 in a game that felt like they would have won if Ewers was able to finish.
He returned a little over a month later and averaged 227.3 yards with 13 touchdowns over his final eight games. And that was with Bijan Robinson as the focal point of the offense. That includes Ewers showing off his potential by going 31-47 for 369 yards and a score in the Alamo Bowl vs. Washington.
This year, it’s Ewers’ time to shine. Playing behind a great offensive line and throwing to one of the best wide receiver groups in the country he’ll have a great chance to put up some gaudy numbers this season. And if Texas is able to get to the Big 12 conference title game, he’ll check another box for the Heisman voters.
Tyler Shough, QB, Texas Tech (+15,000 at DraftKings)
If you are looking for this year’s Max Duggan, look no further than Shough. The senior signal-caller has proven he can win big games, as he led the Oregon Ducks to a win in the 2020 Pac-12 Championship Game before transferring to Texas Tech.
Unfortunately, Shough’s time in Lubbock has been marred with injuries. But once he got healthy last year he looked great down the stretch, leading Texas Tech to four straight wins to close out the season, including a win over Mississippi in the Texas Bowl. Shough threw for 266.5 yards per game while completing 63.9% of his passes over that stretch.
With wide receivers Jerand Bradley and Myles Price returning, the balance of a solid backfield, and what should be an experienced and improved offensive line, this Red Raiders offense could really take off in 2023. And Shough will be the guy that makes it all flow and has some value as a crazy +15,000 longshot.
Big 12 stat to know
Last season, TCU became the first Big 12 team besides Oklahoma to qualify for the College Football Playoff.
