The Auburn Tigers and Maryland Terrapins will each hope to sing a winning tune when they meet this afternoon in Nashville for the Music City Bowl. The college football odds have the Tigers favored by nearly a touchdown.
Auburn is still wondering how it didn’t pull off the upset over Alabama in the Iron Bowl, and coach Hugh Freeze wants the win on Saturday to cement a winning record in his first season in charge. Quarterback Payton Thorne struggled this season, but the Tigers feature one of the best rushing attacks in the nation.
The Terps will be playing without quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, after the Big Ten career passing yardage leader opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. He was responsible for multiple victories, and Mike Locksley will be preparing for next season as he looks at two different quarterbacks in this one.
Our free college football picks and predictions for today’s Music City Bowl break down the bowl game odds between Auburn and Maryland, and explain why one player in particular should have a solid game on the ground.
Auburn vs Maryland best odds
Auburn vs Maryland picks and predictions
Maryland has struggled this season to fully contain scrambling quarterbacks, and that’s why we’re backing Payton Thorne to do some damage on the ground as our best bet on Saturday.
Northwestern defeated Maryland 33-27 in late October, and Wildcat quarterback Brendan Sullivan had his best rushing game of the season. He racked up 56 yards on 14 carries, including an 18-yard scamper.
It was a similar situation when the Terps defeated Rutgers. Gavin Wimsatt ran for 48 yards on 16 carries, finding the endzone twice in what was his fourth-best rushing total of the year.
Drew Allar of Penn State was selective this season when he’d run. But his 39 yards on just four carries was just a bonus as he carved Maryland up through the air in a 51-15 win.
And the Terps managed to hold Jeff Sims to just 33 yards on 10 carries when they faced Nebraska. But backup quarterback Chubba Purdy matched that total on just three carries as the Huskers narrowly lost.
Enter Payton Thorne. He’s been poor this season throwing the ball, racking up just 1,671 yards through the air. But he’s averaged 4.2 yards per carry on the ground, which is impressive when you consider his rushing numbers are lessened by the 28 sacks he endured this season.
His legs are a piece of an Auburn rushing attack that ranks 21st in success rate this season. The Tigers are averaging 5.0 yards per carry, and their 196.3 yards per game are the 15th-most in the country.
The raw numbers make Maryland’s rush defense look solid, as the Terps rank 21st in yards allowed per carry and 32nd in yards allowed per contest. But those numbers are helped by having a Top-25 sack rate. When you dig deeper into the metrics, Maryland ranks 79th in defensive rush success rate, and 90th in defensive EPA per running play.
Auburn’s not going to win this game passing the ball. Multiple receivers have opted out or entered the transfer portal, depleting a unit that wasn’t very good to begin with. Maryland’s got a Top-20 pass defense in terms of EPA per play, and a Top-5 interception rate.
Only seven teams in college football call a higher percentage of run plays per game than the Tigers, and Thorne’s going to get opportunities against a defense that has shown a propensity to allow chunk plays to opposing quarterbacks. bet365 has the best Thorne rushing odds for the Music City Bowl, and at -115 we’ll bank on him gaining at least 48 on the ground.
My best bet: Payton Thorne o47.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Auburn vs Maryland same-game parlay
Payton Thorne o47.5 rushing yards
Payton Thorne o0.5 interceptions
Under 50.5 points
Between Auburn’s struggles to throw the ball and Maryland being without Tagovailoa, I don’t see this game breaching the 50-point mark. The total is set at 47.5 but we’ll give ourselves a bit of wiggle room here.
In addition, we’re backing Thorne to throw an interception. Maryland’s defense is picking off one of every 24 passes faced, and Thorne has thrown interceptions in three of his last four games, including two against Alabama. The four picks thrown in that span came on just 82 pass attempts.
Pair these plays with our best bet, with bet365 giving you +525 odds for a great same-game parlay!
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Auburn vs Maryland spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread for this game opened with Auburn as 2.5-pt favorites, but it quickly moved to a touchdown once the news broke of Tagovailoa’s opting out. The Tigers now are sitting at -6.5, and I think that might simply be too much.
I like Auburn to win outright, but I’m not sure I’d back them to win by a touchdown. Maryland’s got a solid defense, and the Tigers will have to run the ball successfully to put up points. Should they fall behind, I’m not sure Payton’s going to be able to make up that ground.
On the flip side, Auburn’s average against the run, and Maryland is 35th in EPA per play. That should allow the Terps to cover the spread, something they’ve done in three straight contests.
The total of 47.5 also shifted significantly on the news of Maryland’s quarterback not playing. The number moved rapidly from 48.5 down to 45.5 before coming back up to settle at the current number.
As I stated in the SGP analysis, the Under is the stronger play here. Auburn’s got one of the best red-zone defenses in college football, and Maryland will likely be forced to settle for field goals a few times. Auburn’s emphasis on running the ball will also help keep the total low.
Auburn vs Maryland betting trend to know
The first quarter total Over is 7-1 in Auburn’s last eight games. Find more college football betting trends for Auburn vs. Maryland.
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Auburn vs Maryland game info
| Location: | Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, December 30, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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Auburn vs Maryland weather
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