Army vs East Carolina Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight — College Football Week 5

Farmer's prediction: Army’s option attack is bound to keep Blake Harrell scratching his head.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
Sep 25, 2025 • 16:26 ET • 4 min read

NCAAF

Sep 25 • 7:30 PM ET
ECU
44 %
ARMY
56 %
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Army Black Knights East Carolina Pirates NCAAF
Photo By - Imagn Images. Army Black Knights East Carolina Pirates NCAAF

Few things in sports are more frustrating than going up against a service-academy offense — except doing it on a short week.

That’s reason enough to back the Army Black Knights as they take on the East Carolina Pirates.

My Army vs. East Carolina predictions and college football picks indeed side with the moneyline underdog on Thursday, September 25.

Army vs East Carolina prediction

Army vs East Carolina best bet: Army moneyline (+152)

Blake Harrell revived East Carolina last season, taking over upon Mike Houston’s firing and then rattling off four straight wins, along with a bowl win.

Thus far this season, the Pirates are 2-2 outright and 3-1 against the spread. There is plenty of reason to have some faith in the first-time head coach.

But do not overlook what got Houston fired.

East Carolina’s defense was a liability in four of its first six games against FBS opponents last season, at which point Houston was dismissed. It continued to be a net negative in four of its last six games, as well.

Even this season, that defense has not exactly covered itself in glory, effectively an average defense thus far this season.

Not at all unrelated, Houston’s defensive coordinator was Blake Harrell, most exposed by Army last year, giving up 31 first-half points in a blowout loss that was the last game of Houston’s tenure.

Army is nowhere near as explosive as it was last season, but the option may still confound Harrell and his defense, especially on a short week. The quick prep aspect of this thought provides added value in the moneyline underdog.

Army vs East Carolina same-game parlay

East Carolina failed to defend Army's option offense last season, and any degree of failing again this year should propel this game toward its Over.

Of course, it should be acknowledged that Army tends to give up passing gains, setting up East Carolina quarterback Katin Houser for his third game out of the last four with at least two touchdown passes.

Army vs East Carolina 3-leg SGP

  • Army moneyline
  • Over 52.5
  • Katin Houser Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

Our deep-ball SGP: Mr. Reliable 

Army's defense gives up consistent passing gains more than it gives up explosive ones.

Thus, turning Katin Houser's success toward his most reliable target makes sense.

Senior receiver Brock Spalding has cleared this prop in three of four games, the exception coming just seven yards short. 

Army vs East Carolina 5-leg SGP

  • Army moneyline
  • Over 52.5
  • Katin Houser Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
  • Katin Houser Over 277.5 passing yards
  • Brock Spalding Over 49.5 receiving yards

Army vs East Carolina odds

  • Spread: Army -4.5 (-110) | East Carolina +4.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Army +152 | East Carolina -184
  • Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-110) | Under 52.5 (-110)

Army vs East Carolina trend to know

Blake Harrell has been either East Carolina’s defensive coordinator or head coach since 2020, in which time the Pirates have gone 1-5 outright against Army and Navy. Find more college football betting trends for Army vs East Carolina.

How to watch Army vs East Carolina

Location Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
Date Thursday, September 25, 2025
Kickoff 7:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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