Alabama and Tennessee play for the 109th time in their rivalry history at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
After winning last year's game by 17, the Crimson Tide are 9.5-point favorites this year, and my Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction and college football picks expect Kalen DeBoer to light a victory cigar for the second straight season.
Alabama vs Tennessee predictions
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Early Alabama vs Tennessee spread pick: Alabama -9.5
Kalen DeBoer already has as many losses against Tennessee as Nick Saban did in 17 rivalry games at Alabama, but despite the Crimson Tide losing on the third Saturday in October to start DeBoer's tenure in Tuscaloosa two years ago, Alabama has settled back into being a power in the post-Saban era.
While Alabama lost last week to Georgia, the Tide were in it until the end, with several questionable calls and the weather conditions playing a role. However, Tennessee's Week 6 performance is the reason I like Alabama to cover -9.5 or better against the Vols.
Against an Arkansas team that was 0-3 ATS against Power Four opponents, the Volunteers failed to cover as 13.5-point favorites. The Razorbacks had been outscored 122-34 in those three games, but Tennessee managed just 24 against them and allowed 17. The Vols' non-existent passing game (121st in EPA per pass) is a problem.
This Alabama team remains a college football national championship odds favorite for a reason; it's one of the most well-rounded teams in the country. The Crimson Tide are No. 2 in college football in net adjusted EPA per play and top 25 in available yards percentage on both offense and defense.
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Early Alabama vs Tennessee total pick: Over 50.5
Alabama is one of the best Over teams in the country (5-1), and Tennessee is one of the best Under teams (5-1). But with the way the Crimson Tide's offense has looked against quality opponents not named Georgia, I like the Over at 51.5 or better.
With a Heisman Trophy odds contender at QB in Keelon Russell, Alabama has averaged 40 points per game against Power Four defenses ranked outside of the top five by SP+. Russell, who's third nationally in QBR (90.0), has the Tide ranked No. 18 in the country in pass success rate (51.6%), which could be a problem for a Vols defense that's 70th by the same metric (43.9%).
Although Tennessee's offense has been wildly inconsistent due to its QB play, Josh Heupel still has one of the best run games in college football. Running back DeSean Bishop is top 10 nationally in rushing yards after contact (465) and runs of 10+ yards (18).
With Bishop carrying the rock, Tennessee is second in EPA per rush and should find enough success on the ground to put up 20+ points on Bama.
Alabama vs Tennessee odds
- Alabama vs Tennessee spread: Alabama -9.5
- Alabama vs Tennessee moneyline: Alabama 74%, Tennessee 26%
- Alabama vs Tennessee Over/Under: 50.5
How to watch Alabama vs Tennessee
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026, 3:30 p.m. ET
- City: Knoxville, Tenn.
- Venue: Neyland Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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