Year 2 of the Kalen DeBoer era in Tuscaloosa begins with a high-profile matchup against the Florida State Seminoles, and dare I say, the Alabama Crimson Tide are a tad underrated.
DeBor’s teams famously make big leaps in his second season, and while he must replace QB Jalen Milroe, this could be one of the most talented Tide teams in years.
Meanwhile, Mike Norvell’s seat starts the season hot following the dumpster fire that was 2024. My early Alabama vs. Florida State predictions break down if Norvell can cool it off by keeping this game within the two-touchdown spread.
Read on for my college football picks for Saturday, August 30.
Alabama vs Florida State predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Alabama vs Florida State spread pick: Alabama -13.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
Replacing Nick Saban at Alabama was never going to be easy, but the results for Kalen DeBoer in Year 1 were disappointing, nonetheless.
The Alabama Crimson Tide went 9-4 last season, which included embarrassing losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma as big favorites. But that’s kind of what can happen when you get inconsistent play from your QB.
DeBoer is hoping that changes this season with Ty Simpson being named the starter. Simpson profiles as a more pocket passer but is an underrated athlete, and he’s in a great position to succeed.
Simpson will play behind one of the best offensive lines in the country and throw to one of the best wideouts in Ryan Williams.
DeBoer may also be working with one of the most talented defenses that Alabama has put together in years.
Which is probably not something Florida State Seminoles Head Coach Mike Norvell wants to hear after his 2-10 debacle of a year. Once again, Norvell restocked in the transfer portal, including bringing in BC QB Thomas Castellanos. He also brought in Gus Malzahn to run the offense, which is an interesting choice.
The offensive line was a major problem, and this is almost an entirely new unit, learning a new system, and expecting them to gel in time to slow down this Bama defensive front is asking a lot.
Remember, DeBoer took Washington to the national championship game in his second season there. Alabama, at just under two touchdowns, looks like the play here. Roll Tide.
Early Alabama vs Florida State total pick: Under 50.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
I hinted at it above, but this Alabama defense is going to be a problem for opponents this season. The Crimson Tide ranked fifth in EPA margin and ninth in defensive success rate, returning a ton of production this season.
Four of their top five defensive lineman are back, so there should be improvement in both sacks and numbers against the rush this season. Four starters are also back in the secondary and added Cam Calhoun from Utah.
Now, Gus Malzahn is known for his power spread scheme. He loves to run the football and enjoys playing at a fast pace. I’m just not sure how effective that will be with a new QB, behind a new offensive line, none of which have played together, going up against this Alabama defense.
If this game goes Over it’s because Alabama put up 40+ points. That said, I would lean Under in this matchup because I believe that the Seminoles will struggle to move the ball consistently.
Alabama vs Florida State odds
- Alabama vs. Florida State spread: Florida State -12.5
- Alabama vs. Florida State moneyline: Alabama -550, Florida State +400
- Alabama vs. Florida State Over/Under: 50.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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