Wisconsin vs Illinois Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Badgers Can't Find Rhythm in Big Ten Final

The wear of running through the Big Ten tournament bracket cannot go unmentioned. The Wisconsin Badgers will play their fourth game in four days this afternoon, and the fatigue of the third game was rather clear in their legs late in Saturday’s upset of Purdue.

That reality alone gives the Illinois Fighting Illini an advantage this afternoon in the final game of the college basketball season before we are blessed with March Madness brackets. The Illini will be in only their third game in three days.

Betting against the Badgers outright may be foolish, but betting against them continuing to hit 3-pointers is prudent and logical. That exhaustion sets the direction in my free college basketball picks for Wisconsin vs. Illinois on March 17.

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Wisconsin vs Illinois best odds

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Wisconsin vs Illinois picks and predictions

It cannot be argued, at least not this week, that Wisconsin has rediscovered the form from the first three months of its season, the form that put the Badgers into the Top 15 at 16-5 overall.

They've won three straight games outright and four of their last five while beating the spread in all five of those games, let alone by an average of 8.4 points compared to bookmaker's expectations.

Give Wisconsin its credit. Now, do not expect it to continue this afternoon.

The change from the Badgers’ February swoon — Wisconsin went 0-8 against the spread and 2-6 straight-up last month to be the No. 68 team in the country in the month, per barttorvik — to this March surge was largely driven by excellent shooting beyond the arc.

In their first 30 games this year, the Badgers averaged 19.9 attempts from deep and made 35.2% of them, cratering in February by making just 28.8% of those threes while shooting 21.3 per game. The uptick in attempts was a step in the right direction. It just would have helped to, ya know, make some of them.

In Wisconsin’s last five games, it has taken 23.4 attempts per regulation while shooting 40.2%. Improvement, but focus a bit closer and today’s problem will be clear.

In Saturday’s second half and overtime, the Badgers went 2 of 16 from deep. Frankly, they outplayed Purdue rather thoroughly, but their legs had gone out. Wisconsin could not get under the shots it needed to. Even the first half was a bit of a struggle, but after opening 0-for-4, the Badgers hit 5 of 12 before half. That was enough to keep pace with the No. 3 Boilermakers. If Wisconsin’s legs had held up in the second half, it may have won in regulation.

Take out that second half and overtime, and the Badgers went 4.5 games making 42.9% of their threes while taking 23.3 per game. That is a winning formula, It just isn’t one that will continue at this point of exhaustion.

And against Illinois, there is little other in the way of finding points. The Illini barely foul, giving up free throws at the second-lowest rate in the Big Ten. They're relentless on the glass, holding opponents to the third-lowest offensive-rebounding rate in the conference. They devastate ball movement, forcing isolation that leads to contested looks, with opponents making just 48.2% of their attempts inside the arc.

Wisconsin’s only hope of hanging a lopsided number this afternoon is to return to shooting 40% from deep. But with legs playing their fourth game in four days and coming off the adrenaline of an overtime win against a Top 5 foe, no faith should be put in hot shooting this afternoon.

My best bet: Wisconsin team total Under 73.5 (-112 at FanDuel)

Wisconsin vs Illinois same-game parlay

Wisconsin team total Under 73.5

Chucky Hepburn Over 10.5 points

Quincy Guerrier Over 5.5 rebounds

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As tired as Wisconsin was, Chucky Hepburn deserves a pile of praise for his late-game heroics on Saturday. The Badgers had a side-out with less than three seconds remaining on the clock, trailing by two. Hepburn came around a screen to collect the inbounds pass, found some downhill momentum and still maintained his composure to take a measured layup. He calmly yet aggressively got to the rim and beat the buzzer.

The junior didn't fray in the clutch, and he should not fray no matter today’s pressure. He doesn't need threes to score, and if the rest of Wisconsin’s roster fails to find a rhythm, Hepburn will take the onus upon himself.

The rest of the Badgers’ rotation missing shots will set up Quincy Guerrier for an influx of rebounds. He grabs 20% of available defensive rebounds when he is on the court, far and away the most prolific on Illinois’s roster. If the Badgers are missing, Guerrier is the most likely candidate to collect the loose balls.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Wisconsin vs Illinois spread and Over/Under analysis

The Illini beat the Badgers, 91-83, to start March where Wisconsin was a three-point favorite.

Given how bad the Badgers had been in February, that edge was a bit of a surprise and one entirely due to the home-court advantage of the Kohl Center.

Seeing this spread now at -2.5 or -3 in Illinois’s favor should be chalked up largely to Wisconsin’s wear. That March 2 spread was the equivalent of a pick’em on a neutral court, and now the Badgers are playing better. Why move the number by three more points? It must be that fatigue.

The total two weeks ago was 151, higher than today’s 148.5 or 149. Again, assume that is exhaustion. Advanced metrics say Wisconsin is scoring six more points per 100 possessions which would suggest the total should be higher. But those six points are almost entirely the result of made 3-pointers, and if those struggle at all to finish these two weeks of Big Ten Tournaments in Minneapolis, then the Badgers could plummet this total.

Wisconsin vs Illinois betting trend to know

Illinois went 4-1-1 against the spread as a one-bucket favorite in Big Ten play, while Wisconsin went 1-2 ATS as a one-point underdog in conference competition. Find more college basketball betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Illinois.

Wisconsin vs Illinois game info

Wisconsin vs Illinois key injuries

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