The Duke Blue Devils host the Virginia Cavaliers in a top-15 ACC showdown with the nation's best defense welcoming a Cavaliers squad that just held its last three opponents to an average of 58 points.
My Duke vs. Virginia predictions and college basketball picks explain why I like the Under on Saturday, February 28.
Virginia vs Duke prediction
Virginia vs Duke best bet: Under 137.5 (-110)
Attack & kick and perimeter cuts are the two pillars of the Duke Blue Devils' half-court offense, ranking in the 95th percentile in both. The Virginia Cavaliers' defense is built to stop exactly that, ranking in the top 5% of the sport against both.
In other words, Duke’s top offensive sets are running straight into Virginia at its peak. On the flip side, Duke allows just 0.76 points per possession on attack & kicks, so Virginia can't generate easy looks either.
Two top-15 defenses and Virginia's pace make this a low-scoring game. I'd take this to 136.5.
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Virginia vs Duke same-game parlay
I have very little doubt that Duke wins this game. They are simply in a different tier. However, this number feels a little too rich for a game I see as low-scoring.
It falls back into the same analysis as the best bet. Virginia can slow down the primary functions of Duke's offense, and they have enough size to keep Cam Boozer from fully taking over.
I think this stays close until late, where Duke pulls away, but not by double digits. I paired Virginia to cover with my best bet for this same-game parlay.
Virginia vs Duke SGP
- Under 137.5
- Virginia +9.5
Our beyond the arc SGP: Cam Dominates!
Cam Boozer has gone over this assist number every game this season, and he should be the alpha on the backboard in this matchup.
Virginia's elite defense will force Duke into tougher shots, which means more contested looks, more long rebounds, and more boards for Boozer to chase. They'll also force the ball out of his hands.
In a low-scoring game, the rebound opportunities concentrate toward the best rebounder on the floor. An elite defense will also make someone else beat them. It made sense to pair his rebounds and assists together for our long host.
Virginia vs Duke SGP
- Under 137.5
- Virginia +9.5
- Cam Boozer Over 10.5 rebounds
- Cam Boozer Over 2.5 assists
Virginia vs Duke odds
- Spread: Virginia +10.5 (-110) | Duke -10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Virginia +500 | Duke -719
- Over/Under: Over 136.5 (-115) | Under 136.5 (-105)
Virginia vs Duke betting trend to know
Virginia has hit the moneyline in 22 of its last 25 games (+15.95 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Virginia vs. Duke.
How to watch Virginia vs Duke
| Location | Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date | Saturday, February 28, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Virginia vs Duke key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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