The Texas Tech Red Raiders travel to Waco and hope to remain in the hunt for the Big 12 title with a win over the Baylor Bears.
All eyes will be on Red Raiders forward JT Toppin, who is averaging better than 21 points and 11 boards on the season.
Read on for my Texas Tech vs Baylor predictions and college basketball picks for Tuesday, January 20.
Texas Tech vs Baylor prediction
Texas Tech vs Baylor best bet: Texas Tech -1.5 (-115)
The Baylor Bears might regret playing such a weak non-conference schedule, because it’s clear they weren’t prepared for what Big 12 play would bring.
The Bears are just 2-5 against Q1 opponents, and sit at 1-4 in conference play. Their win against Oklahoma State was an impressive road victory, but it came behind a 59-point first-half performance. That stands out, since they’ve scored less than 65 points in their other four conference games.
Meanwhile, the Texas Tech Red Raiders have lost just four games this season, all against Q-1 opponents, with the only conference blemish being a four-point loss at Houston.
Since the start of conference play, they have led the Big 12 in both defensive rebounding rate and 3-point shooting percentage. They’ve also posted the second-best eFG% metric at both ends of the court.
Baylor’s posted a high offensive rebound rate on the season, but that number has dipped significantly against conference foes due to its lack of size in the frontcourt. And the Bears rank dead last in the conference in defensive rebound rate, offensive eFG%, turnover rate, and shooting percentage inside the arc in their last five games.
The Bears are not a deep team and will have no real answer to match JT Toppin. Add in the outside shooting of Christian Anderson, Donovan Atwell, and Jaylen Petty, and this is another game that will likely get away from the Bears in a hurry.
Baylor is 1-4 ATS in Big 12 play, and that trend will continue as it won’t cover against this strong Texas Tech team.
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Texas Tech vs Baylor same-game parlay
The tallest player in Baylor’s primary rotation stands just 6-foot-9, which has led to the likes of Cameron Carr attacking the glass. But the guard has averaged just 3.6 boards per game in conference play, and has grabbed more than four just once in that span.
Baylor has allowed a fair amount of made 3-point shots, and Anderson is a volume shooter from deep. He’s attempted 21 in his past two games, connecting on 10, and has hit at least three in seven of his last 10 games.
Texas Tech vs Baylor SGP
- Texas Tech -1.5
- Cameron Carr Under 4.5 rebounds
- Christian Anderson Over 2.5 threes
Our beyond the arc SGP: On Toppin the World
Don’t think we forgot about Toppin. He’s a rebounding machine who has at least five offensive boards in five of his last six games, and is averaging 12.8 rebounds a game in conference play. Baylor lacks the size or strength to compete with him on the glass.
He’s also got the ability to stretch the floor, and he’s been doing so more often in recent games, connecting on 3 of 4 attempts from outside the arc in each of his last two games, and should knock down at least one in this contest as well.
Texas Tech vs Baylor SGP
- Texas Tech -1.5
- Cameron Carr Under 4.5 rebounds
- Christian Anderson Over 2.5 threes
- JT Toppin Over 11.5 rebounds
- JT Toppin Over 0.5 threes
Texas Tech vs Baylor odds
- Spread: Texas Tech -135 | Baylor +115
- Moneyline: Texas Tech -1.5 (-115) | Baylor +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 154.5 (-110) | Under 154.5 (-110)
Texas Tech vs Baylor betting trend to know
Texas Tech has covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 14 away games (+4.30 Units / 27% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Baylor.
How to watch Texas Tech vs Baylor
| Location | Foster Pavilion, Waco, TX |
| Date | Tuesday, January 20, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Texas Tech vs Baylor key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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