The Alabama Crimson Tide will face off against the Tennessee Volunteers with a spot in the SEC Tournament final on the line.
Alabama is the class of the SEC this season, and they showed that in their absolute shit-stomping of Mississippi State in the quarterfinals. While Tennessee put on a strong performance against Florida, the Vols will need to be even better if they hope to upset the Tide as 3-point underdogs.
Check out our best free Tennessee vs. Alabama picks and predictions for NCAA hoops action on Thursday, March 11, with tipoff at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Tennessee vs Alabama odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAlabama hit the FanDuel odds board at -2.5 Friday evening, peaked at -4.5 a couple of times today and is at -4 as of 11:30 a.m. ET. Point-spread ticket count and money are both running 4/1 on the Crimson Tide. The total is out to 140 from a 137.5 opener, with 82 percent of bets/89 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameTennessee Volunteers vs Alabama Crimson Tide betting preview
Injuries
Tennessee: No injuries to report.
Alabama: Joshua Primo G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 16-5 in Tennessee's last 21 games versus a team with a winning SU record, while the Under is 4-1 in Alabama's last five games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Tennessee vs. Alabama.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Alabama absolutely blew the doors off a not-terrible Mississippi State squad, winning 85-48 and easily covering the 8-point chalk. With the win, the Tide are now 17-2 straight up versus SEC opponents, going 13-6 ATS — that includes a 71-63 win over Tennessee back on Jan. 2. Knowing then what we do now about 'Bama, the fact they were 10.5-point underdogs in that game is a little shocking.
Because Alabama is legit. The Tide are the favorites to win their first SEC Tournament title since 1991 and that’s because they beat you in so many different ways. Alabama ranks 43rd in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and is the best three-point shooting team in the SEC.
But Alabama takes it to the next level on defense. The Tide are tops in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and are coming off a game where they held Mississippi State to a ridiculous 29 percent shooting, including 1-for-19 from 3-point range.
Now, Tennessee is a better offensive team than Mississippi State, but not by a whole lot and that inconsistency has cost them. They come into this game as the conference’s No. 4 seed and winners of back-to-back games over Florida, but the Vols weren’t playing overly well before that. Tennessee was just 6-6 SU and 3-8-1 ATS in their previous 12 games.
While this is a matchup of strong defenses, the offensive differences are jarring. Alabama plays at one of the highest tempos in the country, while Tennessee really likes to slow things down in the half-court.
The problem with that is the Vols aren’t a great shooting team, and they’ll have trouble keeping up with Alabama if they get down early. 'Bama will also have a noticeable edge on the glass. Roll Tide.
PREDICTION: Alabama -3 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The total hit the board at 137.5, which makes sense when you consider the fact these SEC foes fell 11 points below that 145 total back in their Jan. 2 meeting and they are two of not only the best defensive teams in the SEC, but the whole country.
Additionally, the Vols' issues on offense seem to be exemplified against better defensive teams. Against the other four top defensive teams in the SEC (Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi and Kentucky) they have averaged just 65.2 points per contest.
On the other side, Alabama is more of a high-volume offense, but they aren’t the greatest shooting team either. Tennessee has the athleticism to matchup up well with the Tide. So, the Vols should get some stops and then try and slow down the game, allowing this one to slip below the number.
PREDICTION: Under 137.5 (-110)
Tennessee vs Alabama betting card
- Alabama -3 (-110)
- Under 137.5 (-110)
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