Do you like buckets? Of course, you do. This means this SEC Tournament semifinals matchup is perfect for you, as the LSU Tigers take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in a matchup that promises fireworks.
The Tigers and Razorbacks are the two highest-scoring teams in the SEC, and oddsmakers are giving the Hogs a slight 3-point edge, but which high-powered offense will shoot their way into the conference tourney title game?
Check out our best free LSU vs. Arkansas picks and predictions for NCAA hoops action on Saturday, March 13, with tipoff at 3:25 p.m. ET.
LSU vs Arkansas odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonArkansas opened -3.5 early this morning at PointsBet USA, nudged to -4 late this morning and is back at -3.5 as of 1 p.m. ET. But make no mistake, it’s all Razorbacks on the point spread. “Eighty-seven percent of tickets and 94 percent of money on Arkansas,” PointsBet’s Wyatt Yearout said. The total hasn’t moved off 162.5, with the Under nabbing 67 percent of bets/72 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameLSU Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks betting preview
Injuries
LSU: Shareef O'Neal F (Out).
Arkansas: Jaylin Williams F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Arkansas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for LSU vs. Arkansas.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Arkansas enters this game as arguably the hottest team in the country, winners of nine-straight ball games, and hasn’t lost a conference game since a Jan.16 matchup at Alabama. The Razorbacks opened their SEC tourney play with a solid 70-64 win over Mizzou, covering as 5-point favorites. It was the 10th spread they’ve covered in their last 12 games.
What makes Arkansas such a dangerous team to play in March is that it's so balanced and can beat you in a ton of different ways. The Razorbacks rank 34th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to the KenPom college basketball ratings.
While the advanced stats say the Razorbacks are actually better on defense, they led the SEC in scoring this season. Led by one of the best guards in the county, Moses Moody, Arkansas averaged 83.3 points per contest this season.
Meanwhile, LSU had to outlast Ole Miss 76-73 as 1-point chalk in its SEC opener. The win was the Tigers third in a row and sixth in their last eight games overall and they have looked like an offensive juggernaut in the process, averaging 84.3 points per game over that span. That offensive run has LSU sitting sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency.
These two SEC foes split their regular-season meetings, both winning and covering at home. So, as the spread indicates, this matchup is pretty close to a coin flip. But, while LSU will need to shoot their way to a victory, Arkansas has the ability to crank it up on the defensive end. For that reason, we are siding with the Hogs.
PREDICTION: Arkansas -3 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
It should be no surprise to see a total of 165 when the conference’s top two offenses in terms of scoring go head-to-head. But is it high enough to attack the Under?
Well, in the first meeting between the Tigers and Razorbacks in Baton Rouge, back on Jan. 13, the total closed at 160.5, and thanks to an LSU outburst of 92 points they went Over the number by 7.5 points. But in the second meeting in Fayetteville, the Razorbacks held the Tigers to just 75 points resulting in the Under 162 cashing by four points.
While Arkansas has a terrific defense, LSU has proved they can still score against elite units. With the Tigers ranking 136th in adjusted defensive efficiency, they’re going to have a tough time slowing down the Hogs. You didn’t think we’d actually take the Under in this game, did you? What’s the fun in that?
PREDICTION: Over 165 (-110)
LSU vs Arkansas betting card
- Arkansas -3 (-110)
- Over 165 (-110)
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