Two struggling ACC teams will each be looking to build on recent wins as the Syracuse Orange visit the Florida State Seminoles on Wednesday night.
Cuse beat the Boston College Eagles on Saturday to snap a three-game losing streak, and FSU broke its own three-game skid on Saturday with a win over the Louisville Cardinals.
While neither team has been great this year, there’s definitely an edge to be found in this matchup. We’ll break it down in detail in our college basketball picks and predictions for Syracuse vs. Florida State on February 8.
Syracuse vs Florida State best odds
Syracuse vs Florida State picks and predictions
This hasn’t been a special season for the Orange. Barring a late-season miracle, Syracuse will miss the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year, something it hasn't done since 2007 and 2008. As I’ve written about before, the patented Jim Boeheim's 2-3 zone defense isn’t getting the job done, and a solid offensive squad hasn’t been able to carry the Orange above mediocrity this year.
That said, Syracuse does still have some talent. Joe Girard III leads the team with 16.6 points per game, and freshman Judah Mintz (15.4 points, 4.4 assists per game) has joined him to create a formidable backcourt. This Orange team is better than the one that finished 16-17 last year, and could compete for an NIT bid. It’s not what Boeheim and Syracuse expects or wants, but it’s something.
That lies in contrast to a Florida State team that is struggling to accomplish much of anything this year. The Seminoles have been better of late, winning three of their past six games, but they’re well past the point of turning around the season.
Florida State also has some bright spots on the offensive end. It boasts a balanced attack with four guards all scoring over 10 points per game. But like the Orange, the Seminoles have seen their defense let them down time and time again.
Florida State has some of the worst defensive numbers in the country this year. The Seminoles are giving up 75.3 points per game, which ranks 324th in the nation. They’re also outside the Top 300 when it comes to preventing 3-pointers — with opponents shooting a blistering 36.7% from beyond the arc against them.
That’s not a great look against a Syracuse team that relies on scoring from the outside. Cuse shoots 36.2% from deep, and will definitely be looking to exploit the Seminoles perimeter defense on Wednesday night. Even the advanced defensive numbers look awful for FSU, with Ken Pomeroy rating it 232nd in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Seminoles may look like a trendy pick tonight, especially playing at home. However, I think the gap between these teams is just a bit too big to see Florida State truly making a game of this, even with Syracuse’s struggles in putting away games this year.
The Orange have largely taken care of business against weaker teams, and they should be able to do so again on Wednesday night against an inferior opponent.
My best bet: Syracuse -3.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
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Syracuse vs Florida State spread analysis
The Orange opened tonight’s game as a two-point favorite over the Seminoles. That line has jumped a bit, and as of noon on Wednesday, the consensus spread is now Syracuse -3.5.
Syracuse has played reasonably well against the spread this season, putting up a 13-10-1 ATS mark. Florida State is just 11-13 ATS on the year.
While the Seminoles are playing at home tonight, that may not matter all that much. Florida State has lost three straight at home, albeit to good teams in the Clemson Tigers, Miami Hurricanes, and Virginia Cavaliers.
As I wrote about above, I think the matchup problems are the biggest consideration in tonight’s game. FSU is struggling on defense, and even had trouble finishing off a win against Louisville this past weekend, easily the weakest team in the ACC this year.
The Cardinals went on a late 17-2 run to almost pull off the upset, and ended up scoring 78 points against the Seminoles despite being a dreadful offensive team.
With Syracuse capable of scoring in bunches, we can expect a run or two like that to sink Florida State tonight. I’m laying the points with the Orange, and I think they’re a good bet on the moneyline as well.
Syracuse vs Florida State Over/Under analysis
Tonight’s total opened at 150.5 at most sportsbooks. The public has bet that number down slightly, with the consensus Over/Under now sitting at 149.5.
Both of these teams are betting on offense rather than defense, which accounts for that big number. Florida State has played to totals of well Over 150 in each of its last three games, while Syracuse has hit the Over in eight of its last 10 outings.
As I’ve been saying, one of the key aspects to tonight’s game is the fact that the Orange could tee off from deep against a Florida State team that doesn’t defend the 3-point line well. To a lesser extent, the same could be true in reverse, though the Seminoles don’t shoot the ball quite as well as Syracuse.
That alone isn’t enough to push me into taking the Over. But when we look at how these teams have played lately, and we take out the games against opponents who look to grind the game to a halt (I’m looking at you, Virginia), a 150+ total doesn’t seem all that outlandish. I feel a little cautious about this bet, but if you asked me which way I’m leaning, it’s definitely towards taking the Over.
Syracuse vs Florida State betting trend to know
Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Syracuse vs. Florida State.
Syracuse vs Florida State game info
|Location:||Donald L. Tucker Center, Syracuse, NY|
|Date:||Wednesday, February 8, 2023|
|Tip-off:||7:00 p.m. ET|