St. Bonaventure vs Xavier NIT Semifinal Picks and Predictions: Bon Voyage for Musketeers

The Musketeers have underwhelmed this season, and now without their lead guard, must try to topple a motivated Bonnies squad. Find out why X won't give it to ya with our NCAA betting picks for St. Bonaventure vs. Xavier.

Last Updated: Mar 29, 2022 8:47 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jalen Adaway St. Bonaventure Bonnies NIT
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

A pair of former A-10 foes meet Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden with a berth in the NIT Final on the line.

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies are a veteran, experienced team that set a goal to win the entire NIT after failing to reach the NCAA Tournament.

The Xavier Musketeers faltered down the stretch and now will be without lead guard Paul Scruggs, who tore his ACL in the win over Florida.

Who will survive and advance?

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for St. Bonaventure vs. Xavier on Tuesday, March 29 to find out.

St. Bonaventure vs Xavier odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

St. Bonaventure opened -1, but the line has moved to -1.5 across all books as of writing. The total has taken some steam toward the Under, moving from 142.5 at open to 139.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

St. Bonaventure vs Xavier predictions

Predictions made on 3/29/2022 at 7:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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St. Bonaventure vs Xavier game info

Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Date: Tuesday, March 29, 2022
Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

St. Bonaventure vs Xavier betting preview

Injuries

St. Bonaventure: None.
Xavier: Paul Scruggs G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Musketeers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for St. Bonaventure vs. Xavier.

St. Bonaventure vs Xavier picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Musketeers are limping their way onward in the NIT. Head coach Travis Steele was fired following the tournament’s first game, and the Musketeers opted to bring Sean Miller back for his second stint after leading the program from 2004-09. Miller won’t be coaching this game, as the team will be playing under interim coach Jonas Hayes.

Paul Scruggs has been a vital contributor for Xavier for several years. The fifth-year guard tore his ACL in the win against Florida, meaning that his team will be playing against a tough opponent in the Bonnies without their usage leader.

The Musketeers have survived, but we expect the bus to stop here. Things haven’t exactly been pretty along the way, as they’re just 2-8 against the spread over their last 10 games. Did this team flip a switch come the postseason? That’s not exactly the case either, as they lost to Butler in the first round of the Big East Tournament and then failed to cover the spread with two close wins over Cleveland State and Vanderbilt in the NIT, although they did squash Florida as well.

The Musketeers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up win.

Although this is a neutral-site game at Madison Square Garden, the Bonnies have a proximity advantage to the venue and will likely have a favorable crowd. 

The Bonnies are 23-9 on the season. They play a shallow rotation featuring six main options. The five starters (Jaren Holmes, Jalen Adaway, Dominick Welch, Kyle Lofton, Osun Osunniyi) all see a healthy allotment of minutes, and each player averages double-digits in the scoring department. 

St. Bonaventure has been undervalued in this tournament. The Bonnies have been an underdog in each of their first three games, but have won outright each time. They now get a winnable, albeit close, matchup against a team without its lead guard and head coach. We think this is the Bonnies’ easiest test in the tournament to date and see them coming away with yet another win. We agree with the slight line movement in St. Bonaventure’s favor. 

Prediction: St. Bonaventure -1.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

This total has taken significant steam toward the Under, moving from 142.5 at open to 139.5 at current. Is the line move warranted?

St. Bonaventure’s six-man rotation lends itself to a slower style of play. The Bonnies prefer to slow things down and operate their offense in the half-court, evidenced by their 253rd ranking in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric.

Xavier likes to get out and run a bit more, ranking 94th in adjusted tempo. The Bonnies will look to slow down this attack, a feat that may be slightly more feasible given the absence of Scruggs. 

This is a neutral-site game, and we don’t expect either team to put up a huge number on the scoreboard. The Under is 4-0 in the Bonnies’ last four games as a favorite and 6-2 in their last eight overall. 

The Bonnies will look to make this a half-court game, and we fancy their chances of doing just that. The trends and numbers both point us in the direction of the Under as well.

Prediction: Under 139.5 (-110)

Best bet

This seems like the end of the road for Xavier, who hasn’t looked particularly impressive in quite some time. 

The Musketeers will be playing under an interim coach and will be without lead guard Scruggs. This was a disappointing team this season, and they now face off with an experienced St. Bonaventure unit that has a stated goal of winning this whole tournament.

We’re riding with the Bonnies.

Pick: St. Bonaventure -1.5 (-110)

College basketball parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our St. Bonaventure vs. Xavier picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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