The Saint Mary’s Gaels will look to reach the West Coast Conference Tournament finals for the fifth time in six years tonight as they take on the Santa Clara Broncos in the first of two WCC semifinals in Las Vegas.
Saint Mary’s (24-7) saw their 16-game winning streak snapped last Saturday when they lost to the Gonzaga Bulldogs 70-57. Santa Clara (20-12) finished the regular season strong, winning five of their last seven, and may be looking for an invite to a smaller postseason tournament if they don’t shock the world and earn an automatic bid to March Madness.
The Gaels are an excellent, balanced squad that plays elite defense. We’ll figure out if that’s enough to cover a hefty spread in the college basketball odds with our free college basketball picks and predictions for Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s on Monday, March 11.
Santa Clara vs Saint Mary's best odds
Santa Clara vs Saint Mary's picks and predictions
The Saint Mary's Gaels have often played second fiddle to Gonzaga in the WCC. Year after year, the Bulldogs have been a national title contender while the Gaels have been a solid tournament team, but little more.
That dynamic appeared to have shifted for most of this season. Saint Mary’s was undefeated in WCC play, while Gonzaga was squarely on the bubble for most of the year. Only now that the Bulldogs posted a strong win over the Gaels in the regular-season finale did the two sides look to be on approximately equal terms again.
Saint Mary’s would love another shot at Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament final. First, the Gaels will have to beat the Santa Clara Broncos, a team they've defeated in five straight.
It would be stunning if the Broncos pulled off an upset tonight, but that doesn’t mean this can’t be a close game. After all, Santa Clara stayed within five points of the Gaels on January 31, losing just 82-77 at Saint Mary’s.
But we shouldn’t get too attached to that one result. Saint Mary’s won the other game 73-49, showing just how suffocating its defense can be, especially against weaker opponents. For the season, the Gaels are allowing just 58.5 points per game, second-best in the country behind the Houston Cougars.
The Broncos don’t have any players who should threaten that defense. Their best scorer is Adama Bal (14.8 ppg), a big junior guard out of France who scored 18 points in the January game. However, the Gaels held him to four points on 1 of 9 shooting in the other matchup. No Santa Clara player scored more than 11 points in that loss, and the team was held to just 37.5% shooting.
Santa Clara has a mediocre offense, averaging just 77.3 points on the season. The Broncos are also dead average on defense, with opponents scraping together 72.0 ppg on average. KenPom rates them as — you guessed it — a pretty average team, ranking 109th overall and just outside the Top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
In a big game, I can’t imagine how Santa Clara can keep up with a Saint Mary’s team that would give even the best teams in the country a tough showing. While the two previous meetings played out very differently, the Gaels are a better team by double digits. On a neutral court, on a big stage, and in an important contest, that difference will show, particularly as the Broncos struggle to score against a dominant Gaels defense.
My best bet: Saint Mary’s -10.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Santa Clara vs Saint Mary's same-game parlay
Saint Mary's -10.5
Under 136.5
Adama Bal Under 12.5 points
Saint Mary’s should dominate tonight’s game by hounding the Broncos on defense and I’ll add the Under 136.5 points to my best bet. While the teams did get over that number in the surprisingly high-scoring second game this season, the first encounter ended up at just 122 points, and I expect that to be the model for how Saint Mary’s wins tonight.
Finally, I’m going with Bal to go Under his scoring prop at 12.5 points. The Gaels have already shut Bal down in one of their two matchups this year and will hold him well below his season total of 14.8 ppg. Bal has also come up Under tonight’s number in four of his last six games — none of which have come against teams anywhere nearly as tough as Saint Mary’s.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Santa Clara vs Saint Mary's spread and Over/Under analysis
Saint Mary’s opened as a 9.5-point favorite in tonight’s game. Money has come in on the Gaels throughout the day, and as of mid-afternoon, Saint Mary’s -11.5 has become something of a consensus line, though you can find anywhere between 10.5 to 11.5-point spreads by looking around.
Both teams have been strong against the spread this year. Santa Clara has put up an impressive 18-11-2 ATS record on the year, while Saint Mary’s is 16-13 ATS.
The Gaels are the far superior team here, and outside of that loss to Gonzaga, they’ve been playing some of their best basketball down the stretch. Nobody else in the WCC has been able to topple Saint Mary’s this season, and the Gaels know they need a strong performance — likely including a win in the tournament final over their biggest rivals — to secure a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. I’m taking Saint Mary’s to cover the spread tonight.
Tonight’s total opened at 135.5 points, which remains the most common Over/Under on the market, though you can find numbers as high as 136.5 at some books.
The Under holds a 16-14 edge in Gaels games this year — a number that is surprisingly balanced given the strength of their defense.
As stingy as Saint Mary’s is against most of its opponents, it’s notable that Santa Clara has also been playing toward the Under as of late, going below the total in seven of its last nine games. Both teams are comfortable and accustomed to playing games with totals in the 120s. While it’s far from a sure thing, I’m leaning towards the Under tonight.
Santa Clara vs Saint Mary's betting trend to know
Saint Mary’s is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's.
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Santa Clara vs Saint Mary's game info
| Location: | Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Monday, March 11, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Santa Clara vs Saint Mary's opening odds
- Moneyline (ML): Santa Clara +360 | Gonzaga -480
- Against the spread (ATS): Santa Clara +9.5 (-110) | Saint Mary's -9.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): Over 134.5 (115) | Under 134.5 (-115)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Santa Clara vs Saint Mary's key injuries
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