San Francisco vs Gonzaga WCC Tournament Picks and Predictions: Zags Explode on Helpless Dons

With the Big Dance around the corner, San Francisco and the Zags fight to capture momentum and the West Coast Conference Championship. Find out why our money is on Gonzaga in our college basketball betting picks and predictions.

Last Updated: Mar 7, 2022 6:52 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Chet Holmgren Gonzaga Bulldogs College Basketball
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Gonzaga Bulldogs open their postseason schedule against the San Francisco Dons in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference tournament.

Gonzaga, which earned the top seed in the WCC, is in a rare spot Monday night.

The Zags are coming off a loss to St. Mary’s in the final conference game of the regular season and have had eight days to brew on that upset. The Dons knocked off BYU in their opening game of the tournament on Saturday.

This is a game college basketball bettors won't want to miss, so be sure to check out our free college basketball picks and predictions for San Francisco vs. Gonzaga on March 7.

San Francisco vs Gonzaga odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Gonzaga opened as a 12-point favorite on Sunday and since then has been bet up to -14. The total hit the board at 154.5 and has bounced between 153 and 154 over the past two days.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

San Francisco vs Gonzaga predictions

Predictions made on 3/07/2022 at 11:41 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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San Francisco vs Gonzaga game info

Location: Orleans Arena, Paradise, NV
Date: Monday, March 7, 2022
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET

San Francisco at Gonzaga betting preview


San Francisco: Yauhen Massalski F (Questionable).
Gonzaga: Ben Gregg F (Questionable), Kaden Perry F (Questionable), Dominick Harris G (Questionable).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Bulldogs are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 neutral-site games as favorites. Find more NCAA betting trends for San Francisco vs. Gonzaga.

San Francisco vs Gonzaga picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Don’t put too much weight on Gonzaga’s loss to St. Mary’s in the regular-season finale. Mark Few’s program has been known to drop a late-season game and while that upset may not sit well with the selection committee, it can be the cure for complacency for a team that hadn’t tasted defeat since December 14. 

The Zags ran into San Francisco recently, picking up an 89-73 road win against the Dons on February 24. Those 73 points are the most Gonzaga has allowed in its last 11 games, with 14 of those points coming from San Francisco forward Yauhen Massalski.

Massalski, who averages 13.6 points and 9.4 rebounds, is a game-time decision for this postseason matchup with the Bulldogs after suffering a knee injury in the Dons’ win over BYU on the weekend. 

The 6-foot-9 senior is the anchor of this frontcourt and while he’s a game-time decision for tonight, there are rumblings that San Francisco will opt to rest Massalski in preparation for the NCAA Tournament, which the Dons are expected to take part in.

His absence or even limited minutes leaves San Francisco undermanned and undersized against one of the top frontcourt attacks in the land.

Gonzaga is the ninth tallest team in the country, with standouts Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren combing for 32 points and more than 16 rebounds an outing. That pair went for a collective 41 points and 24 boards in that last clash with the Dons.

With the Bulldogs looking to shake off that loss to the Gaels and San Francisco perhaps planning ahead for the Big Dance, we like Gonzaga to do what it does best: going 32-19 ATS (63%) in WCC tournament games under coach Few (since 1999). 

Prediction: Gonzaga -14 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Bulldogs have had eight days to digest their stunning loss to the Gaels. A hiatus this long could be damning to many programs, but the break allowed Gonzaga to get back to basics and line up a series of intense practices to help spark the toughness lacking in its recent loss.

St. Mary’s outscored the Zags 36-21 in the first half of that game and held the mighty Bulldogs to 37% shooting — setting the blueprint for how Few wants his squad to play this postseason. 

With the Bulldogs beating up each other for the past week (probably stiffer competition than most of their WCC foes), Gonzaga will be chomping at the bit to get some real game action.

As good as the Zags are on offense, this program is also sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency and will dial up the intensity on defense to set the tone for March in the postseason opener.  

The Dons can get up and down the floor – ranked Top 100 in pace rating – but if they’re missing Massalski in the middle, Gonzaga can pound the ball inside and shoot a high percentage, forcing San Francisco to start its offensive sets on inbounds rather than transition.

Prediction: Under 154.5 (-110)

Best bet

The full-game spread for this WCC semifinal is a tall one – even for a program as powerful as Gonzaga. 

The Bulldogs’ best-case scenario would be to blast the Dons early on and rest the starters in the second half ahead of tomorrow’s tournament title game, which could leave the latch unlocked for a backdoor from San Francisco.

After such a bad first half versus St. Mary’s last time out, a strong start will be atop coach Few’s whiteboard heading into the game. 

With Gonzaga out of action for more than a week, I’m expecting peak playoff intensity from the Zags on both ends with this team boasting an average first-half margin of almost +13 on the season.

The Bulldogs held a 10-point advantage at the break in their most recent run-in with the Dons.

Pick: Gonzaga first-half -8 (-115)

College basketball parlays

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Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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